If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out.
If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out
The three declared candidates to lead Scottish Labour will this afternoon be considering the meaning of a devastating poll carried out by Ipsos Mori for the STV.
The polling, carried out during a period which saw outgoing leader at Holyrood, Johann Lamont, resign with a damaging critique of the UK-wide party, gives the SNP a huge 29-point lead when people are asked how they would vote in next year’s General Election.
Of those voters questioned in Scotland who said they are certain to vote, 52 per cent say they will vote SNP, with Labour languishing on 23 per cent. Support for the Scottish Conservatives stands at 10 per cent, with the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Green Party both on 6 per cent.
According to the calculations by Electoral Calculus, if such a swing from Labour to the SNP was seen in every constituency the SNP would pick up 54 Westminster seats, an increase of 48 on the seats they currently hold.
Meanwhile Scottish Labour would see itself virtually wiped out, seeing their total number of seats cut from 41 at present to just 4, those being Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West.
The Liberal Democrats would lose all but one of their current tally of 11 seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael surviving.
Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said of the results:
“The poll gives a further boost to the SNP ahead of their upcoming conference and the formal announcement of Nicola Sturgeon becoming the new first Minister. At the same time it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Labour party after a bruising period since the referendum, culminating in Johann Lamont’s resignation last week. They will hope that this represents a trough in public support and that their upcoming leadership contest will allow them to begin to regain some of the support they have lost.”
With Ed Miliband due this evening to address Scottish Labour’s Gala Dinner, STV political editor Bernard Ponsonby has commented:
“This is the most dramatic poll findings ever to be published in Scotland and underlines the scale of the challenge for Labour leaders both north and south of the border.
“There are only two polls in recent memory which have generated as much surprise, the most recent during the independence referendum showing the Yes camp ahead, and before that you’d probably have to go back to 1992 and a poll for ITN which showed support for independence at 50% for the first time.
“Now it is a poll, not an election result, but what it does is to underline the scale of the challenge facing the new leader of Scottish Labour and the figures come as Ed Miliband arrives in Scotland to address a gala dinner in Glasgow.
“On these figures he has little chance of winning a UK election with his Scottish power base facing meltdown.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
25 Responses to “Poll signals Labour doomsday scenario in Scotland”
Guest
You make silly claims, and link a hamas-supporting site.
Erm…left?
GWB1983
Vote Labour get Tory, what does this Labour leadership expect, you cannot go along with extreme right wing policies and then claim your on the workers side.
Myself, I am fed up with all this austerity nonsense that Labour continue to babble on with, and being tougher on benefit claimants, what a joke this lot are they really do believe we are all that stupid.
Voting Labour will get me what? more of the same, don’t lose my job because if I do I will be a scrounger and their to be bullied kicked and sanctioned at will because as they claim it is right just and fair, do they know what fair is?
The general election is next year and if Labour continue with their right wing polices then they are stuffed and so are we I guess, UKIP are not the answer they are more extreme than the Tories, personally am looking more towards the Green Party they offer Britain real hope and have policies that Labour of old would have had – so therein lies our problem.
Unless Labour start to listen they are going to not only lose the Scottish vote but the rest of Britain as well, and they will have no one to blame, mind you this lot would then claim they have learnt but by then we will all be up creek street.
Bill Cruickshank
You have my sympathy.
Alan Ji
The people polled are not yet in a “Thinking about the 7 May 2015” mindset.
There’s all to play for and lots of work to do.
There’s always all to play for and lots of work to do.
Alan Ji
I think it will be called a one-vote stand.