I share a message of cautious optimism as well as a plea for continued support – money and volunteers

What’s the latest with the race to become the next President of the United States of America?

I share what I am picking up across various conversations, and in doing so, I share a message of cautious optimism as well as a plea for continued support – money and volunteers, in what will be a crucial election. We all have heard what a close race this was going to be – that was overstated prior to the time President Biden decided to step aside.  The Vice President’s trajectory is unprecedented in the annals of elections (having erased the President’s deficits and avoided being dragged down by his low popularity, even though she is a joint incumbent), and while she is polling slightly ahead in national polls and state polls, those polls are merely snapshots in time – they are most useful as a directional tool to allocate campaign resources. 

It is important to note how far we all have come in ten weeks.  Before the President announced he was passing the torch, the only president with a favorability rating at this point in an election that was lower than Joe Biden’s was Jimmy Carter in 1980.  The tipping point state (the state at which Harris tips into 270) had Biden -7.  He was decidedly underwater in VA, NH, N-2, CO and MN, as well as battleground states, yielding odds of a Republican trifecta of 60%.  Among the undecided, many did not like Trump, but had no confidence in the President’s ability to win the election and continue as president.  Perhaps the worst image that could be projected was of the President’s gait.  For too many Biden reminded voters of elderly relatives. 

While the Harris trajectory is impressive, the electorate has barely moved since August in the battleground states.  This, despite the millions in ad spend, Trump’s poor debate performance, Trump-Vance’s pet-eating digressions, and a second assassination attempt against Trump.  

Here is a snapshot of polling:

FiveThirtyEight

• Harris favorable/unfavorable is 47.5/46.2% – 1.2 favorable [Cook Political Report 50/48]
• Trump unfavorable/favorable is 52.6%/42.9% – 9.7 unfavorable [Cook Political 47/52]
• National polls: Harris 48.5% – Trump 45.9%; Harris +2.6.  Harris started at 44.9% at launch. Since May, Trump has not moved outside of a 47-48% band.  
• States:

	Delta	KH	DT
AZ	-1.5	46.8	48.3
GA	-1.3	47.1	48.4
MI	+1.9	48.2	46.3
NC	-0.7	47.5	48.2
NV	+1.0	47.9	46.9
PA	+0.6	48.0	47.4
WI	+1.6	48.6	46.9

270toWin: National polls: Harris 49.5% – Trump 45.7%; Harris +3.8

Cook Political Report’s Swing State Project Survey (Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor) shows Harris leading (AZ +2, MI+3, NV +1, PA +1 and WI +2) or tied (NC) with Trump in all but one (GA -2) of the seven battleground states and with an overall lead of 49%-48% nationally (2-way) and 49%-47% (3-way).  Walter and Taylor point out that below the headline numbers, there have been shifts since August.  Trump’s lead in his two strongest issues, inflation and immigration, has shrunk.  Since August, Harris’ lead has:

• shrunk among independents (men: +7-point swing to Trump, now 44%-47%, and women: +2-point swing to Trump, now 48%-37%, but
• made significant gains among Black men (+21 points, now 71%-22%) and Latinos (+17 points, now 56%-38%). 

Trump still holds a 5-point lead on the question on who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50%-45%).  However, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s 6-point August lead is gone.  Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48% to 42% in August; now voters are evenly divided (47%) on whom they trust more to handle an issue that 60% of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.”

On the border and immigration, Trump leads 51% to 42%, but that is a 5-point drop from his 53% to 39% lead in August.

Walter and Taylor return to the dominant polling question – whether Trump can break through his ceiling.  Like 2016 and 2020, Trump has not broken through 49% in any of the key battleground states.

Harris’ challenge among the low propensity/low information undecided voters (unprecedently low) who will determine the outcome of the election is to tell her story – ad spend and message mix are key.  Swing state undecideds per Walter and Taylor have shrunk from 10% in August to 5%.  (I have seen other polling showing the pool as low as 4%). 

There will not likely be an Obama-like breakaway moment for Harris.  The good news for Harris is that she has room to grow; Trump does not.  She must win back some of the +65 white Biden voters leaning Trump, and then make inroads among under 40 men.  As to the under 40 male vote, here Walz could make a difference (despite conventional wisdom that running-mates do not move the needle). This is now a battle person-by-person, state-by-state.  This election, for example, could be determined by 5,000 – 10,000 votes in PA or WI, and less than 5,000 in NV. 

Harris’ approval rating is slightly ahead of Trump’s, but only slightly.  Undecided voters are undecided because they hate Trump, but perceive that their lives were far better when Trump was president.  And he has the benefit of appearing strong.  As for Harris, they like her story and her values, and she appears to be ready for the job, but they do not really know her, and worry that she is radical, extreme and not really middle class.  An increasing number now know she is the Vice President, but there remains a knowledge gap.

This is why ads explaining who the Vice President is are more important than ever before.  This is why the cumulative GoTV effort – canvassing, phone banking, postcards and letters — could determine the outcome of the election.  If you live in PA, Harris is all over your TV feed (one-third is going to TV ads in the state).

Not only are the margins razor sharp, but as cited before, the gender gap is unprecedented, but in terms of the absolute deltas, but also the impact across every demographic imaginable.  The gaps have two component movements – more women moving to Harris, and more men (particularly under 40) moving to Trump.  While women moving to Harris will vote, an unknown is whether men who have trouble voting for a woman will stay home, rather than vote for Trump.  The battle for men under 40 is largely an online one – with ads being deployed in the manosphere focused on both policy (with foreign policy taking on a more important role) and appearance (showing Harris with the trappings of the Office of the President – descending from Marine One, for example).  To add to the fraught mix, Trump may do better in states such as WI, MI and PA if turnout is high, as each of these battleground states has a staggeringly high percentage of white and white non-college voters.

On the economy, there is now a 2-point gap, and how it breaks among the undecided is unknown.  The kitchen table issues are not so straight-forward, and here the intangibles of leadership, such as strength, clarity of purpose, and values, are important.  Recall Reagan reacting to the Challenger crash or George W. Bush after 9/11.

Focus groups have identified another imperative for pulling the undecideds across.  She needs to distinguish herself from Biden.  The debate and DNC speech dials both dropped for her when she referenced Biden.  And the less Trump is in the news the less well he performs – Trump’s ratings increased each time he was indicted (and particularly the third and fourth time) and after the first assassination attempt.

One note of caution.  Trump overperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020, and he currently is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020.  Perhaps a countervailing trend – to what extent will we see “stealth” Kamala voters, particularly women, who feel uncomfortable admitting they will vote for her?

Mark S. Bergman

7Pillars Global Insights, LLC

Washington, D.C.

August 27, 2024 

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