Are the Tories becoming increasingly irrelevant?
According to the most recent opinion polls, the Tories are now the third most popular party in the UK. This comes as support for Kemi Badenoch’s party has dropped below that of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.
The polling aggregator Election Maps UK has taken an average of current opinion polls and identified that support for the parties is currently as follows:
- Labour – 25.9%
- Reform – 24%
- Tories – 23.5%
- Lib Dems – 12.5%
- Greens – 8.3%
Election Maps UK has also calculated that support for Labour has dropped 8.7 points since the 2024 general election. Meanwhile, the Tories are down 0.9 points, and the Lib Dems are down 0.1 points.
By contrast, support for Reform is up 9.3 points, and support for the Greens is up 1.4 points.
It is not uncommon for parties to lose popularity with the electorate when they enter government. However, the primary beneficiary of this when Labour has been in government has historically been the Tories.
The fact that the Tories are not currently capitalising on this could be indicative of them becoming increasingly irrelevant in British politics. Or perhaps it’s a sign that they aren’t being forgiven for the chaotic final years they spent in office.
Either way, this is significant. Since the modern Conservative Party was founded in 1834, the party has come either first or second in every single general election it has contested.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: HM Treasury – Creative Commons
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