The top Tories with seats at risk after first MRP poll 

Mordaunt, Hunt and Shapps some of the big Tory ministers who face losing their job according to latest YouGov poll

The first MRP poll of the 2024 general election has put Labour on course for its second biggest election victory in history, surpassing Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.

Based on over 53,000 voters, the YouGov projection is yet another devastating blow to Rishi Sunak as pollsters have said that, if these results are replicated on election day, it would reflect “a seismic shift for British politics”.

The model predicts near wipeout for the Conservatives in a number of areas, including London, the North East, North West and Wales, with top Tory cabinet figures at risk of losing their seats. The Tories are on track to have just 140 seats according to the latest model, which would be their worst performance in a British general election since 1906.

Based on the scale of the projection, twelve of the 26 members of cabinet face the threat of losing out to the Lib Dems or Labour candidates in their constituency.  

The key Tory figures set to lose their seats are:

Jeremy Hunt, chancellor (Godalming and Ash)

Grant Shapps, defence secretary (Welwyn Hatfield)

Penny Mordaunt, Commons leader (Portsmouth North)

Victoria Prentis, attorney general (Banbury) 

Alex Chalk, justice secretary (Cheltenham)

David TC Davies, Welsh secretary (Monmouthshire)

Johnny Mercer, armed forces minister (Plymouth, Moor View)

Michelle Donelan, science secretary (Chippenham)

Gillian Keegan’s, education secretary (Chichester) 

Mel Stride, work and pensions secretary (Central Devon) 

Mark Harper, transport secretary (Forest of Dean)

Esther McVey, minister without portfolio (Tatton)

Labour is currently touted to take Shapps’ seat and give Mordaunt, Stride, Harper and Davies strong competition.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to take Hunt, Chalk and Donelan’s seats, while Keegan faces a close contest with the Lib Dems candidate, which would mark the first time since 1865 that the Tories haven’t held the Chichester seat. In general the Lib Dems look to do well based on the projections, and are predicted to become the third party of British politics again, supplanting the SNP. 

It’s good news for the Greens too as the MRP poll predicts the Greens to win two seats, their highest number to date, by holding on to Brighton Pavillion and gaining Bristol Central from Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire.

Hannah Davenport is news reporter at Left Foot Forward

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