74 Labour frontbenchers are at risk

Neither Labour nor the Tories are faring particularly well in the opinion polls right now. With Reform leading the polls on the right and the Greens surging on the left, both Keir Starmer’s party and Kemi Badenoch’s have been hovering around the 20 per cent mark for some time.

As a result, election experts have been projecting that the 2024 general election could see many incumbent MPs from the two traditionally strongest parties losing their seats. Many of these would be backbenchers. But there are also dozens of frontbenchers at risk – including the prime minister himself.

According to the latest modelling from Electoral Calculus, if the current opinion polls were to be borne out in an actual election, Reform would emerge the largest party. Nigel Farage’s party would be 18 seats short of a majority. The Greens would gain dozens of seats, leading to a fragmented opposition with the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the SNP all ending up with a fairly similar tally.

In that scenario, there would be a whopping 74 Labour frontbenchers who would lose their seat. Labour would lose seats in multiple directions – with Reform, the Greens and the SNP picking up multiple seats from current Labour frontbenchers.

The full list of frontbenchers currently projected to lose their seat according to Electoral Calculus is as follows:

1. Keir Starmer, Prime Minister- Holborn and St Pancras (Green gain)
2. Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister – Bristol North West (Green gain)
3. Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for the Cabinet Office – Torfaen (Reform gain)
4. Dan Jarvis, Minister for Security – Barnsley North (Reform gain)
5. Anna Turley, Minister without Portfolio – Redcar (Reform gain)
6. Chris Ward, Parliamentary Secretary to the Cabinet Office – Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven (Green gain)
7. Satvir Kayr, Parliamentary Secretary to the Cabinet Office – Southampton Test (Reform gain)
8. Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary – Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley (Reform gain)
9. Hamish Falconer, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan) – Lincoln (Reform gain)
10. Seema Malhotra, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Indo-Pacific) – Feltham and Heston (Reform gain)
11. Chris Elmore, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Multilateral, Human Rights, Latin America and the Caribbean) – Bridgend (Reform gain)
12. John Healey, Defence Secretary – Rawmarsh and Conisbrough (Reform gain)
13. Luke Pollard, Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry – Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Reform gain)
14. Shabana Mahmood, Home Secretary – Birmingham Ladywood (Green gain)
15. Sarah Jones, Minister for Policing and Crime – Croydon West (Green gain)
16. Alex Norris, Minister for Border Security and Asylum – Nottingham North and Kimberley (Reform gain)
17. Jess Phillips, Minister for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls – Birmingham Yardley (Reform gain)
18. Mike Tapp, Minister for Migration and Citizenship – Dover and Deal (Reform gain)
19. David Lammy, Justice Secretary – Tottenham (Green gain)
20. Alex Davies-Jones, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Victims and Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls – Pontypridd (Reform gain)
21. Jake Richards, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Sentencing, Youth Justice and International – Rother Valley (Reform gain)
22. Ellie Reevs, Solicitor General – Lewisham West and East Dulwich (Green gain)
23. Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer – Leeds West and Pudsey (Reform gain)
24. James Murray, Chief Secretary to the Treasury – Ealing North (Reform gain)
25. Lucy Rigby, Economic Secretary to the Treasury – Northampton North (Reform gain)
26. Torsten Bell, Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury – Swansea West (Reform gain)
27. Peter Kyle, Business and Trade Secretary – Hove and Portslade (Green gain)
28. Chris Bryant, Minister for Trade – Rhondda (Reform gain)
29. Blair McDougall, Minister for Small Business and Economic Transformation – Renfrewshire East (SNP gain)
30. Kate Dearden, Minister for Employment Rights and Consumer Protection – Halifax (Reform gain)
31. Chris McDonald, Minister for Industry – Stockton North (Reform gain)
32. Pat McFadden, Work and Pensions Secretary – Wolverhampton South East (Reform gain)
33. Stephen Timms, Minister for Social Security and Disability – East Ham (Green gain)
34. Diana Johnson, Minister for Employment – Hull North and Cottingham (Reform gain)
35. Bridget Phillipson, Education Secretary – Houghton and Sunderland South (Reform gain)
36. Georgia Gould, Minister for School Standards – Queen’s Park and Maida Vale (Green gain)
37. Olivia Bailey, Minister for Early Education – Reading West and Mid Berkshire (Green gain)
38. Josh MacAlister, Minister for Children and Families – Whitehaven and Workington (Reform gain)
39. Wes Streeting, Health Secretary – Ilford North (Independent gain)
40. Karin Smyth, Minister of State for Health – Bristol South (Green gain)
41. Stephen Kinnock, Minister of State for Care – Aberafan Maesteg (Reform gain)
42. Sharon Hodgson, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Public Health and Prevention – Washington and Gateshead South (Reform gain)
43. Zubir Ahmed, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Health Innovation and Safety – Glasgow South West (SNP gain)
44. Emma Reynolds, Environment Secretary – Wycombe (Reform gain)
45. Emma Hardy, Minister for Water and Flooding – Hull West and Haltemprice (Reform gain)
46. Mary Creagh, Minister for Nature – Coventry East (Reform gain)
47. Michael Shanks, Minister for Energy – Rutherglen (SNP gain)
48. Martin McCluskey, Minister for Energy Consumers – Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West (SNP gain)
49. Liz Kendall, Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary – Leicester West (Reform gain)
50. Kanishka Narayan, Minister for AI and Online Safety – Vale of Glamorgan (Tory gain)
51. Lisa Nandy, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary – Wigan (Reform gain)
52. Stephanie Peacock, Minister for Sport, Tourism, Civil Society and Youth – Barnsley South (Reform gain)
53. Simon Lightwood, Minister for Roads and Buses – Wakefield and Rothwell (Reform gain)
54. Lilian Greenwood, Minister for Local Transport – Nottingham South (Reform gain)
55. Keir Mather, Minister for Aviation, Maritime and Decarbonisation – Selby (Reform gain)
56. Steve Reed, Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary – Streatham and Croydon North (Green gain)
57. Matthew Pennycook, Minister for Housing and Planning – Greenwich and Woolwich (Green gain)
58. Alison McGovern, Minister for Local Government and Homelessness – Birkenhead (Reform gain)
59. Miatta Fahnbulleh, Minister for Devolution, Faith and Communities – Peckham (Green gain)
60. Hilary Benn, Northern Ireland Secretary – Leeds South (Green gain)
61. Kirsty McNeill, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State – Midlothian (SNP gain)
62. Jonathan Reynolds, Chief Whip – Stalybridge and Hyde (Reform gain)
63. Mark Tami, Deputy Chief Whip – Alyn and Deeside (Reform gain)
64. Nik Dakin, Government Whip – Scunthorpe (Reform gain)
65. Nesil Caliskan, Government Whip – Barking (Reform gain)
66. Stephen Morgan, Government Whip – Portsmouth South (Reform gain)
67. Gen Kitchen, Government Whip – Wellingborough and Rushden (Reform gain)
68. Taiwo Owatemi, Government Whip – Coventry North West (Reform gain)
69. Mark Ferguson, Assistant Whip – Gateshead Central and Whickham (Reform gain)
70. Imogen Walker, Assistant Whip – Hamilton and Clyde Valley (SNP gain)
71. Gregor Poynton, Assistant Whip – Livingston (SNP gain)
72. Jade Botterill, Assistant Whip – Ossett and Denby Dale (Reform gain)
73. Deirdre Costigan, Assistant Whip – Ealing Southall (Green gain)
74. Claire Hughes, Assistant Whip – Bangor Aberconwy (Reform gain)

Meanwhile, the Tories would also lose a number of significant figures from their frontbench operation. In total, Electoral Calculus is projecting that 37 Tory frontbenchers would be given the boot by the electorate. Almost all the Tory frontbenchers would lose their seat to Reform. The full list is as follows:

1. John Glen, Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Leader of the Opposition – Salisbury (Reform gain)
2. Richard Holden, Shadow Paymaster General – Basildon and Billericay (Reform gain)
3. Charlie Dewhirst, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Cabinet Office – Bridlington and the Wolds (Reform gain)
4. Shivani Raja, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Equalities Office – Leicester East (Reform gain)
5. Wendy Morton, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs – Aldridge-Brownhills (Reform gain)
6. Andrew Rosindell, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs – Romford (Reform gain)
7. James Cartlidge, Shadow Defence Secretary – Suffolk South (Reform gain)
8. Mark Francois, Shadow Defence Minister – Rayleigh and Wickford (Reform gain)
9. Martin Vickers, Shadow Home Office Minister – Brigg and Immingham (Reform gain)
10. Nick Timothy, Shadow Justice Secretary – Suffolk West (Reform gain)
11. Kieran Mullan, Shadow Minister of State for Justice – Bexhill and Battle (Reform gain)
12. Mel Stride, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – Devon Central (Reform gain)
13. James Wild, Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury – Norfolk North West (Reform gain)
14. Mark Garnier, Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury – Wyre Forest (Reform gain)
15. Julia Lopez, Shadow Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary – Hornchurch and Upminster (Reform gain)
16. Peter Fortune, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology – Hornchurch and Upminster (Reform gain)
17. Laura Trott, Shadow Education Secretary – Sevenoaks (Reform gain)
18. Patrick Spencer, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department of Education – Suffolk Central and North Ipswich (Reform gain)
19. Stuart Andrew, Shadow Health Secretary – Daventry (Reform gain)
20. Luke Evans, Shadow Health Minister – Hinckley and Bosworth (Reform gain)
21. Helen Whately, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary – Faversham and Mid Kent (Reform gain)
22. Peter Bedford, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department of Work and Pensions – Leicestershire Mid (Reform gain)
23. Bradley Thomas, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero – Bromsgrove (Reform gain)
24. Victoria Atkins, Shadow Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary – Louth and Horncastle (Reform gain)
25. Joe Robertson, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport – Isle of Wight East (Reform gain)
26. Jerome Mayhew, Shadow Transport Minister – Broadland and Fakenham (Reform gain)
27. James Cleverly, Shadow Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary – Braintree (Reform gain)
28. Lewis Cocking, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government – Broxbourne (Reform gain)
29. John Cooper, Shadow Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Scotland Office – Dumfries and Galloway (SNP gain)
30. Jesse Norman, Shadow Leader of the House of Commons – Hereford and South Herefordshire (Reform gain)
31. Rebecca Harris, Opposition Chief Whip – Castle Point (Reform gain)
32. Gagan Mohindra, Opposition Deputy Chief Whip – Herefordshire South West (Reform gain)
33. Ben Obese-Jecty, Junior Opposition Whip – Huntingdon (Reform gain)
34. Rebecca Smith, Junior Opposition Whip – Devon South West (Reform gain)
35. Ashley Fox, Junior Opposition Whip – Bridgwater (Reform gain)
36. Andrew Snowden, Junior Opposition Whip – Fylde (Reform gain)
37. David George Reed, Junior Opposition Whip – Exmouth and Exeter East (Reform gain)

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

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