Talk of a silver lining would be inappropriate given the chaos, confusion and real pain Donald Trump has visited upon the world, but maybe stopping Reform might be some small compensation with just a glint of silver. 

So, Reform UK has bagged itself another headline recruit. Suella Braverman, no less, announcing her defection at a rally for party activists in London. The cameras duly obliged, capturing the twice-sacked former home secretary glued to Nigel Farage as though reunited with a long-lost grandparent.

Elsewhere, Labour was busy doing itself no favours. The party’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election sparked fresh unrest. The Mail wasted no time splashing a melodramatic verdict across its front page: “Burnham rebellion grows.”

On the face of it, the outlook seems clear. Reform surges forward, buoyed by its own momentum and the serial missteps of its rivals, and Farage edges ever closer to power.

But another force is gathering in the background, one that could yet derail Reform’s ascent. A force so loud and so polarising, it threatens to consume anyone foolish enough to stand too close.

Its name, of course, is Donald J. Trump.

The ICE problem comes home

Trump’s politics at home are no longer an abstract overseas curiosity. In recent weeks, horrific scenes from Minneapolis have cut through in Britain, as Trump-backed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations escalated into lethal violence.

The fatal shooting of 37-year-old Alex Pretti, a US citizen and ICU nurse, by federal immigration agents shocked audiences around the world and even triggered a White House-ordered leadership shakeup. Pretti’s death was the second fatal shooting by federal agents in Minneapolis this month, amid mounting evidence and eyewitness accounts that undermine the official US narrative.

Yet even as global concern grew over law enforcement accountability and human rights, senior figures within Reform UK chose to intervene, not with caution, but with applause.

Councillor Joseph Boam, former deputy leader of Leicestershire County Council, posted: “I stand with ICE.” Another Reform councillor, Michael Squires, described the agents’ actions as “heroic,” insisting the shooting was “clear cut.”
The comments were condemned by politicians across parties. Amanda Hack, MP for North West Leicestershire, called them “outrageous.”

This isn’t the first time figures associated with Reform UK have defended the US immigration agency. At Reform UK’s conference last September, Professor James Orr, a senior adviser to Nigel Farage and a personal friend and mentor to US Vice President  JD Vance, said on a panel about preparing the party for government: “We know what needs to be done, we know what needs to be repealed. We need a new borders taskforce, a British ICE and so on.”

Similarly, Laila Cunningham, a Reform rising star and candidate for London mayor was asked whether she supported a British equivalent to ICE. She replied: “I think we need a deterrent and we need law and order and we need to protect our borders,” adding that ICE agents “are just enforcing” deportation orders, and that the UK needs a “strong border force, like ICE, to be a deterrent to irregular migration.This is no longer just an American story. Reform’s willingness to defend the most controversial aspects of Trump-era enforcement, at a moment when that crackdown is being internationally questioned, risks confirming the party’s reputation as authoritarian, amoral, and aligned with policies most British voters instinctively recoil from.

Trump’s growing instability.

A bit of ‘flip floppery’ is to be expected among politicians, it’s the nature of the business they are in. Trump though, long since left all that behind to the point that his own officials wonder what will come out of his mouth or be posted next. Barely a week now passes without Trump saying something deliberately inflammatory, only to contradict himself days later.

Last week, the president sparked fresh fury by downplaying NATO’s role in the war in Ukraine, openly questioning whether the alliance would defend the United States “if we ever needed them,” and most offensive of all, belittling the sacrifices made by NATO troops in Afghanistan. The comments drew condemnation across the political spectrum, even from the habitually cautious Keir Starmer, who described them as “insulting and frankly appalling.”

Days later came the familiar volte-face. British troops were suddenly “GREAT and very BRAVE,” Trump claimed on Truth Social, assuring followers they would “always be with the United States of America.”

But Britain isn’t with Trump. And it isn’t impressed.

Why Britain recoils

As Trump 2.0 appears even more unhinged and untethered than Trump 1.0, the words of British writer Nate White have resurfaced online. Responding on Quora in 2019 to the question “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?” White offered a cultural diagnosis that has aged uncomfortably well.

“Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem,” White wrote. “For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.

“…plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever.”

What makes the passage endure in its virality, is its accuracy. At one level Trump still has to be taken seriously. One of most sobering images of his arrival at Davos, was watching the box containing the nuclear codes being carried out of the aircraft after him. As a man though, and as a politician around which policy can be framed, he is now just a problem to be evaluated. European politicians in particular have been scurrying all week to come to terms with a post pax-americana world.  And for the Trump’s political allies at home, British contempt for the US president could have serious consequences.

The Trump drag

Voters who might otherwise be drawn to Farage’s politics are far less inclined to stomach his proximity to a man they wrote off long ago. Even those tempted by Reform’s insurgent appeal are uneasy about the company it keeps.

Polling by More in Common suggests Farage’s closeness to the US president is repelling voters, with some describing the Reform leader as little more than Trump’s “whipping boy.”

This discomfort is particularly pronounced among women. Of the 2,036 people surveyed between 10 and 13 January, 25 percent of women cited Farage’s support for Trump as the primary reason not to vote Reform, compared with 21 percent of men.

Focus group research shared with Politico shows “Stevenage woman,” suburban, middle-income mothers whose backing proved decisive in Labour’s 2024 victory, are now considering a switch to Reform. But concern about Farage’s relationship with Trump remains a sticking point.

Asked to identify the greatest threat to the UK, one participant didn’t hesitate: “I think Trump, full stop.”

For a party hoping to broaden its appeal beyond protest politics, that association may yet prove less of an asset than a liability.

Reform-curious Labour voters

This builds on earlier research into Labour voters open to defecting to Reform. In April, electoral analysis group Persuasion UK published a major report assessing the extent to which Labour’s support in key constituencies is genuinely vulnerable to a switch to Reform at the next general election.

Based on a sample of 6,000 respondents, the research found the most damaging message for Reform was one linking the party, and Farage personally, to corporate interests. The second most damaging was its proximity to Donald Trump.

The report noted: “Trump and Musk remain very unpopular with potential swing voters to Reform.” More broadly, anxieties about Reform’s associations with Trump, Vladimir Putin, and other extreme or authoritarian figures gave these voters pause for thought, acting as a brake on further movement away from Labour.

Friends in low places

Farage has never hidden his admiration for Trump. After Trump’s shock 2016 victory, and the Brexit result, Farage famously shared a snap of himself with the US president-elect in Trump Tower. The then UKIP leader, told the New Yorker that they were both “roaring with laughter.”

“We were two people who had been through quite an ordeal. But suddenly, you know, we’d won,” he said.

That association continued over the years. Just last September, Farage posted a photo of himself beside Trump in the Oval Office, writing: “It’s good to be back.” Democrat congressman Jamie Raskin responded by branding him a “Putin-loving free speech impostor and Trump sycophant.”

Yet, perhaps not surprisingly, as Farage’s domestic influence has grown, his bromance with the US president has become notably quieter. Among UK voters, Trump ranks as only the 19th most popular foreign politician, in between the King of Denmark and Benjamin Netanyahu. Little wonder, then, Farage has stopped shouting about it.

Like Trump himself, who shapeshifts shamelessly depending on his audience, the day, or even the hour, Farage now appears to be retreating. In the wake of Trump’s repeated attacks on Britain, he seems keen to put some distance between himself and the US president.

As European leaders lined up to condemn Trump’s economic aggression towards Nato allies, Farage went so far as to label US tariff threats against the UK, linked to its opposition to the annexation of Greenland, as “wrong.”

Has the damage been done?

The question is whether this late distancing is enough.

Reform’s flirtation with MAGA America, its defence of ICE at its most controversial, and Farage’s long-standing personal affinity with Trump may yet prove to be less a shortcut to power than a drag on credibility.

For a party trying to shed its protest-movement skin and broaden its appeal, Trump is not just an awkward ally. He may be the very thing that stops Reform going any further.

Talk of a silver lining would be inappropriate given the chaos, confusion and real pain Donald Trump has visited upon the world, but maybe stopping Reform might be some small compensation with just a glint of silver. 

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch

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