Alex Salmond said IndyRef was a 'once in a generation' event. But what does that mean?
How long is a generation?
That’s the question on the lips of many as the Scottish government continues to pursue its efforts for a second independence referendum.
In 2014, just days before Scottish voters went to the polls to vote on their constitutional future, the then First Minister and SNP Leader, Alex Salmond, declared that if Scots voted ‘no’, there would be no second vote on the subject within this ‘political generation’.
Asked on the Andrew Marr programme how he defined this, Salmond expanded:
“If you remember that previous constitutional referendum in Scotland — there was one in 1979 and then the next one was 1997. That’s what I mean by a political generation. In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland.”
We now know that as far as the SNP is concerned, that generation amounts to four and a bit years, given its desire to hold a second vote somewhere between Autumn 2018 and the Spring of 2019.
Polling by YouGov however suggests that the people of Scotland see it different. 39 per cent of respondents believe that a generation is 20 or 25 years, 13 per cent say 30 years and 10 per cent say 10 years.
The results do however show the tensions between those supporting and those opposition Scottish independence. Although for both sides 20 and 25 years remained the most common definition of a generation, ‘Yes’ voters were more likely to argue that a generation lasted fewer than 20 yeas compared to those opposing independence (28 per cent of ‘Yes’ voters to 14 per cent of ‘No’ voters).
Commenting on the results, Matthew Smith from YouGov has observed that:
“Looking at the responses cumulatively, the point at which the majority of Scots say that a generation has passed is 25 years (this is true of both Yes and No voters). If we follow the ‘once in a generation’ logic, these results would dictate that the next Scottish independence referendum be held in 2039.”
Last year, Alex Salmond argued that it had only been an ‘estimation’ that constitutional referendums were once in a generation.
Speaking to BBC Scotland he sought to explain his change of heart, telling the station:
“My estimation was that political constitutional referendums are once in a generation and I was making the example of 1979 and 1997 — that is why I always put it in that context every single time I said that. But of course, things have changed. And why have they changed?
“Well since the referendum there has been 56 SNP MPs elected out of 59, the Scottish government has been re-elected with more MSPs than all the Unionist parties put together in the Scottish parliament and specifically, of course, on a manifesto promise.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward
See: Calls for Wales to be first “Nation of Sanctuary” for asylum seekers and refugees
12 Responses to “In Scotland, how long is a generation?”
Nine Ball
I think a large chunk of this article has failed to copy over from the draft, because it arrives at no conclusion, and fails to elaborate on precisely what the “manifesto promise” mentioned in that final SNP quote actually was. That detail seems rather important.
As a contributing editor, should Mr. Jacobs check that he’s edited his own article correctly, because at the moment it just reads like a aimlessly flailing bit of SNP-bashing, lacking any real content or direction.
billy
scottish independance would not be on the table for a generation if the english dominated westminster and remember what england votes for at westminster england gets no matter what the other home nations want so they voted brexit and got it ignored the views of the rest of britain so dragged scotland out of europe against the will of the scottish people as expressed in the scottish goverments manifesto then you wonder why everyone rails at englands stupidity
Glesga
The SNP are not concerned about generations only independence from the hated English. They would sell Scotland out to the Bundesbank to obtain their goal. They are very nasty and ugly people. Democracy is a loose term for them and they use it when it suits. They detest the two million Scots that voted to remain in the Union.
Patricia Farrington
The Scottish Gvmt was democratically elected in 2015 on a manifesto stating they would hold another referendum on independence if there was material change, like being dragged out of the EU against our will. We were promised that if we voted in 2014 to stay in the UK our place in the EU would be guaranteed. This has patently been ignored. Promises have been broken. Why don’t you understand these facts? Yes….we did not expect to request another referendum so soon but our Scottish Gvmt has been pushed into this position and must follow up on their promises. We are being treated abysmally by the UK Gvmt in Westminster. Our Scottish Gvmt is being ignored and this is stirring up anger against unionist political parties.
Please stop throwing out red herrings like this ‘once in a generation’ nonsense. We now need urgently to leave the UK in order to build a Scotland we can be proud of….a Scotland where migrants are not only welcome but very definitely needed to grow our economy: and to retain our place in the EU. Our country is not like rUK we have different values and a different outlook.
I was a committed Labour Party supporter and activist until the last Independence Referendum when Labour & LibDems joined up with hated Tories to lie to Scots: telling us we were Better Together and promising extra powers via the heinous Vow. It was one of the hardest things I’ve ever done to leave Labour…but as has been said ad nauseam….Labour left me.
RolftheGanger
“. In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland.”
The opinion was incorrect. Because the entirely unexpected self destructive stupidity of Brexit Without A Plan or a Clue has triggered another opportunity.
Opportunities create potential for choice, change and improvement. Something Leftist readers should welcome. That is if they had mostly not turned into deeply Tory Labour reactionaries.
The pioneers of one era; morph into the arch reactionaries of two political generations later. Look in the mirror anti self government reactionaries.