UKIP surge in the polls in Wales

New polling indicates that UKIP could be on course to make significant breakthroughs in the electoral politics of Wales.

New polling indicates that UKIP could be on course to make significant breakthroughs in the electoral politics of Wales.

The data, collected by YouGov as part of an ongoing research project on political attitudes across England, Scotland and Wales by Cardiff and Edinburgh Universities, working with IPPR suggests that the next Assembly Elections in 2016 could see five UKIP members elected, at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives.

According to the polling, asked for voting intentions on the constituency vote which sees voters electing constituency AMs, Labour stands at 41 per cent (-1 since similar YouGov polling in February), the Conservatives stay on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems are on 8 per cent (-1) Plaid Cymru are on 20 per cent (-1) and UKIP are polling 7 per cent (+2). Other parties are down 1 point to 2 per cent.

If replicated at an Assembly Election, this would results in the parties holding the following number of constituency seats:

ŸLabour: 27 (holding all the seats won in 2011 except for Llanelli).

ŸConservative: 6 (unchanged from 2011).

ŸLibDems: 1 (holding Brecon and Radnor).

ŸPlaid: 6 (holding all seats won in 2011, and gaining Llanelli).

Where things get more interesting, however, is on the regional list vote, the section of the ballot paper that provides a regional top up for the parties based on proportional voting. Support here sees Labour on 37 per cent (-2), the Conservatives on 21 per cent (+2), Lib Dems down 2 points to 7 per cent, Plaid Cymru on 19 per cent (+2), UKIP unchanged on 10 per cent and others on 2 per cent (-1).

Applied across all the regions in Wales, that would results in:

ŸLabour retaining the 2 regional seats they currently hold.

ŸThe Conservatives loosing 1 list seat, down to 7.

ŸThe Liberal Democrats loosing 3 regional seats to just 1.

ŸPlaid Cymru would loose 1 seat to 5.

ŸUKIP would pick up 5 seats from the none they have now.

If replicated, these polls would lead to the Assembly has a whole being dominated by Labour on 29 seats (down 1 from the current Assembly), Conservatives on 13 (-1), Liberal Democrats on 2 seats (-3), Plaid Cymru staying steady on 11 and UKIP picking up their first five seats at Cardiff Bay.

Asked about voting intentions for the forthcoming European Elections next month, Labour remain unchanged since February’s polling on 39 per cent, the Conservatives are on 18 per cent (+1). Lib Dems are unchanged on 7 per cent, Plaid Cymru go down 1 point to 11 per cent whilst UKIP sit on 20 per cent (+2). Others are on 6 per cent (-1).

Replicated at the elections themselves, Labour would secure two seats with UKIP and the Conservatives each having one. Plaid Cymru would lose their current single seat at the expense of UKIP.

Finally, on Westminster voting intentions ahead of next year’s general Election, Labour are on 45 per cent (-2), Conservatives 24 per cent (+2), Lib Dems are unchanged on 7 per cent, as are Plaid Cymru on 11 per cent and UKIP are up one point at 10 per cent. Others are down one point to 3 per cent.

Such polling would, according to the Elections in Wales blog see the following in terms of the number of seats held:

ŸLabour: 31 (holding the 26 seats won in 2010, plus gaining: Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan).

ŸConservative: 6 (losing Cardiff North, Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour, but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats).

ŸLibDems: 1 (holding Ceredigion, but losing Brecon and Radnor to the Conservatives and Cardiff Central to Labour).

ŸPlaid: 2 (holding Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but losing Arfon to Labour).

Political commentator Gareth Hughes has said of the findings:

“The polls show that Ms [Leanne] Wood’s leadership is not giving Plaid the edge they hoped for in the Valleys and things look a bit difficult in the Arfon seat in the general election.

“In the Assembly elections Labour lose some ground but it’s from a high base. While the loss of one seat brings them down to 29, with the opposition fragmented between four parties with the arrival of UKIP, Labour are in a more comfortable position to govern than they are now.”

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6 Responses to “UKIP surge in the polls in Wales”

  1. Daley Gleephart

    ‘Loose’ is the opposite of tight. Parties lose seats. Teams lose games.

  2. swatnan

    @Headline: Where is the logic in all this???
    Or, are the Welsh trying to tell the English something? What?

  3. Nyerrrr01

    I don’t understand what you’re going on about, umm? Anyway Wales has always been a Labour-strong country because we’re all poor and cheap xD (And I’m welsh. You all know I’m right so shush your complaining.)

  4. Anthony Barry

    The logic is that the swing to UKIP reflects the increasing movement into Wales of ‘Little Englanders’, many of them, ironically, ‘escaping’ from immigrants. That and a percentage of the Welsh electorate who are daft enough to be swayed by a right wing racist party.

  5. edmund hare

    vote ukip!!!!!!! ps im welsh

  6. Noel

    Funny how we don’t call Labour a left-wing Stalinist party.
    Try reading the UKIP manifesto.

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