These are five of the most important constituencies in the general election

We are now just days away from knowing the result of the 2024 general election, with the polls showing Labour are heading for an historic landslide. In order to make that result a reality, Labour needs to win hundreds of seats across the country – almost all of them from the Tories. In light of this, we’ve taken a look at ten of the key constituencies Keir Starmer needs to win from Rishi Sunak in order to enter Number 10.

Dartford

There is a strong case that Dartford is the most important constituency in the whole of the UK. At every general election since 1964, the party that has won Dartford has won the general election. That’s the longest any single constituency has consistently backed the party that ended up in Number 10.

Labour last won it – narrowly – in 2005. Now, the Tories are sitting on a healthy majority of more than 19,000 votes. That’s a huge majority to overturn in a single election cycle, and would surpass even the swing that Labour got there in the 1997 landslide under Tony Blair. Then, Labour turned a 10,000 Tory majority into a 4,000 Labour one.

Given the scale of the challenge in Dartford, if Labour do pull off a dramatic victory here, then that historic landslide across the country is likely on the cards.

Nuneaton

While Dartford has been the longest running bellwether, Nuneaton has been a constituency that has generated lots of interest as a swing constituency in recent years.

The Midlands seat voted Labour at the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections – when Tony Blair was in Number 10. Then the Tories narrowly won it in 2010, and have held it ever since.

Labour would need to overturn a big 13,000 vote Tory majority to take Nuneaton. That’s no small task, but Starmer’s route to Downing Street runs through constituencies that look a lot like and have majorities on the scale of Nuneaton.

Portsmouth North

So to another seat currently with a significant Tory majority. In 2019, the Tories beat Labour in Portsmouth North by more than 15,000 votes.

But the seat is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, because Portsmouth North has backed the party that won the general election in every contest since 1966. Secondly, because it is the seat currently held by Penny Mordaunt.

If Labour wins here, it not only means that the party will likely be winning a significant overall majority in the House of Commons. It also means that one of the frontrunners to succeed Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader will be out of the race before it even begins.

Plymouth Moor View

To secure a majority of just one in the House of Commons, Labour need to gain 124 seats in the general election. If you sort the 2019 general election results in order of the size of the Tory majority, you discover that the 124th smallest was Plymouth Moor View. That means it is a key seat that Labour needs to win in order to get Keir Starmer into Downing Street.

The Tory majority in 2019 was just shy of 13,000 – slightly lower than Nuneaton. But it hasn’t been Tory for long. Veterans minister Johnny Mercer has held the seat since 2015, when he narrowly defeated the incumbent Labour MP. As such, though the constituency is key to Labour’s election success, it’s a seat that, if the polls are correct, Labour should win comfortably.

Bishop Auckland

One of the stories of the 2019 general election was Labour losing seats in the so called ‘Red Wall’ – parts of the Midlands and North of England which had traditionally backed the Labour Party. Many of these seats saw a long term decline in Labour support since 2001.

Bishop Auckland is a classic example of this. In 2019, the Tories won the seat from Labour, securing a nearly 8,000 vote majority, having narrowly missed out in 2017.

Dehenna Davison, who won in 2019, decided not to stand again this time around, meaning that whoever wins, Bishop Auckland will have a new MP. If Labour wins here – as the polls suggest is likely – it’s an indication that the party has delivered a proper recovery in the Red Wall and that Keir Starmer is on track for a comfortable majority.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

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