Ignore the rhetoric: the deficit is growing

According to the latest ONS borrowing figures, the deficit for April was £6.3bn, around £2bn lower than expected. Public sector net borrowing for the previous year (2012/13) was revised down from £120.6bn to £119.5bn (compared to a deficit of £120.9bn in 2011/12).

Stephanie Bottrill: The treasury ‘does not comment on individual cases’ (except when it can use them to demonise the welfare state)

Having gained notoriety for his bizarre lifestyle, Michael Philpott caused outrage after he was found to have caused the deaths of six of his children in a fire which he started deliberately.

Memorably, the case was jumped on by the right-wing press as “a vile product of welfare UK”. George Osborne even chipped in, saying it raised important welfare “questions”.

Has the deficit really gone down?

As Ed Conway has noticed, if you exclude the effects of either Northern Rock asset reclassification or the profits of the SLS from today’s public sector borrowing figures, the deficit was actually higher this year than last.

Osborne dodges a bullet but debt continues to rise

Economic data is coming thick and fast. Sandwiched between last week’s poor unemployment data and Thursday’s forthcoming results for GDP in the first quarter of the year, public finance figures were published today. They show that George Osborne has dodged a bullet.

Economy to continue flatlining this year

The graph below, produce by Canadian-based bank Scotiabank, shows the evolving nature of GDP forecasts as applied to the UK economy.

As we can see, this is the third consecutive year where the consensus for growth has started out at around 2 per cent before gradually being pushed down towards zero as time has passed.