Odds of Nigel Farage quitting as Reform leader this year increase

The probability of Nigel Farage resigning as leader of Reform UK by the end of the year has jumped from 25% to 40% after another bruising week for the party.

This follows the release of undercover footage showing conversations between Reform senior aides James Orr and Dan Jukes, as well as Nigel Farage, and a man posing as an American donor discussing how he could bypass electoral laws to donate to the party.

As reported by Nation.Cymru, Oddschecker shows that the likelihood of Farage leaving his post in 2026 is now 6/4, down from 3/1, with 79% of bets placed on the market over the past 24 hours backing his departure this year.

The odds imply a 40% chance of him going before the end of 2026, while he is 9/4 to leave next year and 4/1 to remain until 2028.

Oddschecker spokesperson, Chris Rogers, told Nation.Cymru: “Bettors are piling in the pounds on a 2026 exit for Nigel Farage.”

“In light of the recent revelations about illegal foreign donations, Farage’s odds to leave before the end of the year have been cut from 3/1 to 6/4.

“Punters are bullish in their support of an imminent exit for the Reform leader with a colossal 79% of bets expecting his tenure to come to an abrupt end.”

Reform suspended Orr and Jukes after the undercover reporting by Verbatim was released. 

Orr and Jukes had arranged for a US company to fund three polls costing £32,500 which were allegedly commissioned by Reform ahead of local elections in England.

The supposed donors behind the company were in fact undercover reporters from investigative group Verbatim posing as a wealthy American and his UK-based son.

UK electoral law states that to be a permissible donor to a UK political party you must be a UK registered voter, or a company registered in the UK.

The revelations overshadowed Reform UK’s conference over the weekend.

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward