What happens if Farage quits?

Nigel Farage’s resignation as MP for Clacton was intended to be a political masterstroke. The idea was to dominate the headlines, recast himself as the anti-establishment outsider, and shift attention away from uncomfortable questions over undeclared donations and parliamentary scrutiny.

Instead, it risks becoming one of the biggest miscalculations of his career.

When Farage announced he was making a statement about his future in public life, speculation centred on whether he would step down as Reform UK leader. Instead, he resigned as MP and triggered a by-election he fully expected to win comfortably. The gamble has not unfolded as planned.

Polling suggests his personal approval ratings have fallen to their lowest point since the general election, while even the traditionally sympathetic right-wing press appears to be losing patience. What was supposed to demonstrate political strength has instead invited scrutiny of both his leadership and his future.

Does Farage actually need to return to Parliament?

But does he really need to return to Parliament? To become prime minister, a politician must be an MP, as Andy Burnham’s recent scramble over the Makerfield seat demonstrated. Yet Farage’s ambitions for Number 10 remain ambiguous. The Spectator‘s political editor Tim Shipman has said he has asked the Reform leader three times whether he wants to be prime minister and received the same evasive answer each time. In Shipman’s view, forcing a by-election in Clacton appears to be more about maximising influence than maximising his chances of reaching Downing Street.

Nor has Farage ever appeared particularly enthusiastic about the day-to-day responsibilities of being an MP. Since entering Parliament he has maintained no constituency office, recorded one of the Commons’ poorest voting records, and has barely mentioned Clacton in the Commons.

Walking away would free him from the obligations of constituency representation, remove him from the day-to-day scrutiny that comes with being an MP, and allow him to return to the roles he has always seemed to enjoy most – campaigning, broadcasting and cultivating his international profile.

Westminster is already awash with speculation that Farage has grown tired of leading Reform. Since resigning he has spent time in the United States, mixing with the MAGA crowd, with Trump himself publicly endorsing him, sharing an article on Truth Social entitled: “They’re Running the 2024 Anti-Trump Playbook on Nigel Farage.”

Which raises another question: is Farage preparing to jump ship before he’s pushed?

The succession battle has already begun

If Farage were to step aside, Reform would immediately face a leadership contest that exposes divisions already visible beneath the party’s rapid rise.

Three obvious contenders emerge: deputy leader Richard Tice, treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick and home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf.

None would inherit a united party.

Robert Jenrick: frontrunner or Trojan horse?

Jenrick may be the most experienced parliamentarian in Reform’s ranks, and, if he were to lead the party, he would likely push it towards an even stronger emphasis on border security, tougher asylum laws and civil service reform. But he also attracts the greatest suspicion from the party’s grassroots.

His political journey, from David Cameron supporter and prominent Remainer to one of Britain’s most outspoken anti-immigration politicians, has prompted questions about whether his changing positions are one of conviction or political calculation.

Farage himself was once among his fiercest critics, dismissing him as “Robert the Generic”, “Robert the Remainer” and questioning whether he stood for anything beyond personal advancement.

Many long-standing members remain wary of what they see as the growing influence of former Conservative politicians inside the party, fearing Reform risks becoming “Conservative Party Mark II” rather than the insurgent movement they originally supported.

Nor would Jenrick inherit a harmonious leadership team. His relationship with Zia Yusuf has been marked by public clashes over immigration policy, while leaked messages from 2025 revealed Jenrick had sought private information on Yusuf and privately stated they should “destroy” him.

Richard Tice: the familiar face

Richard Tice offers some continuity at least, having previously led Reform before stepping aside for Farage ahead of the 2024 general election. On policy, Tice would likely represent the closest thing to maintaining Reform’s existing platform of lower taxes, deregulation, tighter immigration controls and opposition to net zero policies.

His earlier leadership, however, failed to expand the party’s profile, and was dogged by turbulent media appearances, scrutiny over his business and tax arrangements, and a brutal slamming by environmental experts for claiming it is “absolute garbage” to say human activities are the main cause of climate change. He also remains closely associated with the current controversies surrounding the party’s finances and donations.

Yet supporters argue he has become a far more recognisable political figure since serving as deputy leader. “Richard Tice has developed significantly,” one source told the iPaper. “When he was temporary leader before Nigel returned, he didn’t have that much of a profile. That’s changed.” 

Zia Yusuf: organiser, donor and divisive figure

Zia Yusuf has become one of the architects of Reform’s organisational growth, having said to have been the driving force behind growing its national infrastructure and membership. He has also championed preparing Reform for government, telling the spiked Summit in June that if the party won the next general election it would be “the most prepared incoming government”, with “thousands of pages of primary legislation ready to go” within its first year.

Yet his own leadership credentials have been called into question by a remarkable inconsistency. In 2025 he abruptly resigned as party chairman, declaring that pursuing a Reform government was no longer “a good use of my time,” before reversing his decision less than 48 hours later, insisting that “the mission is too important.”

While Yusuf commands strong support among many activists, his elevation could prove divisive. Just as a Jenrick victory might unsettle Reform’s traditional base, a Yusuf leadership could alienate parts of the broader coalition the party has assembled under Farage’s leadership.

Restore Britain lingers

Waiting in the wings, enjoying Reform’s turmoil, is Rupert Lowe, leader of righter-than-Reform, Restore Britain. Frozen out after his split with the Reform leadership but backed by figures like Tommy Robinson and Elon Musk, Lowe would almost certainly view any post-Farage instability as an opportunity to reassert himself.

That said, Restore appears unlikely to replicate Reform’s electoral success. Its platform is more radical, advocating a dramatic reduction in immigration and the ‘remigration’ of millions of people as part of a vision for an ethnically homogeneous, Christian Britain. Such positions are likely to appeal to a far narrower set of voters than the broader coalition Farage has assembled.

For now, Restore’s support is likely to remain concentrated in a handful of strongly pro-Brexit areas, like Great Yarmouth, where Lowe is MP.

Farage’s enemy on the right has already distanced himself from the current Clacton drama, saying he would refuse “to participate in a Reform-sponsored media circus.” But if the Commons standards process were ultimately to trigger another Clacton by-election, Restore could yet find itself drawn into the contest.

Reform’s biggest challenge: life after Farage

For all the talk of Reform becoming a serious party of government, its greatest vulnerability remains its dependence on one individual.

Farage has dominated every major strategic decision, every media moment and every electoral breakthrough. Remove him from the equation and the policy tensions, personality clashes and competing ambitions that have largely been contained by his authority will become impossible to ignore.

Farage built Reform around his own political brand. If he now decides to walk away, the real contest may not be the Clacton by-election at all, but the struggle over who, if anyone, can hold the movement together without him. For the good of the country, Farage’s departure could finally bring the curtain down on the divisive brand of politics he spent decades building.

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch