The Lib Dems are expected to make gains in next week's local elections, and could even become the second largest party in local government

The Lib Dems had an impressive showing at the 2024 general election, winning 72 seats with 12.2% of the vote. Ed Davey’s party continues to poll on around 12% nationally, but how will that translate at a local level on 7 May? 

It must be said that the Lib Dems tend to outperform their national vote share at a local council level, due to their strong ward-level infrastructure. As well as this, Davey said in last year’s campaign, his party wants to replace the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”.

That strategy paid off in the local elections last year, with the Lib Dems making big gains in more affluent, rural counties, and taking control of councils in Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

Can they emulate that success this year? And how will they do in Scotland and Wales?

How is it looking for the Lib Dems in Scotland?

With five MSPs, the Lib Dems are currently one of the smallest parties in Holyrood.

While the party is predicted to remain one of the smaller parties in the Scottish Parliament, according to an MRP poll by More in Common, they are expected to win 14 seats – 8 constituencies and 6 list seats, trebling their presence in Holyrood compared to 2021.

They are expected to regain seats across their heartlands in the North of Scotland, as well as making gains in urban areas such as Edinburgh and suburban constituencies such as Strathkelvin and Bearsden.

Will the Lib Dems lose out or make small gains in Wales?

In Wales, the Lib Dems currently have one seat, which is held by the Welsh leader of the Lib Dems, Jane Dodds. Despite speculation about whether the party may even lose this seat on polling day, a More in Common MRP poll gives a more optimistic outlook, suggesting the Lib Dems could secure another two seats next Thursday.

So a good night for the Lib Dems would involve keeping their Welsh leader in the Senedd, and potentially adding a couple more Senedd members. With both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK projected to be short of the 49 seats needed to win a majority, the Lib Dems could find themselves in a position to be part of a coalition with Plaid Cymru and other left parties. 

How might the Lib Dems do in the English local elections?

A good night for the Lib Dems and heavy losses for the Tories and Labour could see them overtake the Conservatives to become the second largest party in local government after Labour.

In next week’s vote, the Lib Dems are defending over 700 seats in England, with projections suggesting that they could elect around 100 more councillors. Pollster Lord Robert Hayward has predicted that the Liberal Democrats could pick up as many as 150 seats.

The party could also win control of more councils. They are likely to take control of West Surrey, which is a new local authority.

In Stockport, the Lib Dems are eyeing up outright control of the council, which they have 30 seats on, and are two seats short of a majority. 

The party may also form minority administrations in Newcastle upon Tyne and Hull, as well as further South in West Oxfordshire, Cherwell and Three Rivers. 

What would a good night look like for the Lib Dems in the 2026 mayoral elections?

The Lib Dems’ Peter Taylor is the incumbent directly-elected Mayor of Watford, and is seeking re-election next week. The Lib Dems are projected to keep the mayoralty and win a majority on Watford Borough Council. The party is unlikely to be in contention in other mayoral contests in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets.

Next Thursday looks set to be a mixed bag for the Lib Dems, but overall they are expected to put in a solid performance. If the projections play out, they will have found a middle ground: avoiding the heavy losses forecast for Labour and the Conservatives, but also missing out on the big wins expected for the Greens and Reform.

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward

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