Could the Greens win big this year?
On May 7, voters in Scotland will be electing new members of the Scottish Parliament. In Wales, it’s the Senedd up for election. And across England, more than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs, alongside six mayoralties.
The Greens are going into these elections with a record poll rating and a surge in membership. But what would success look like on 7 May?
What would a good night look like for the Greens in the Scottish Parliament election?
First things first: The Scottish Greens and the Green Party of England and Wales are two separate political parties. So here we are only talking about the Scottish Greens.
At the last Scottish Parliament election, the Greens won eight seats. Success for the Greens – given the current political context – would therefore require them to win more seats than that at an absolute minimum.
How many more than eight is the crucial question. Some opinion polls are currently putting the Greens in second place behind only the SNP. Others have the Greens further behind in third, fourth or even fifth place.
Similarly, the small number of MRP polls that have been carried out which provide projections as to how many seats each party is likely to win have significant variation when it comes to the Greens.
What would make a good night then? Moving into a double-digit seat tally is the bare minimum. On a very good night, the Greens would be looking to win something around the 15-20 mark, and becoming either the second or third largest party in the parliament.
What would a good night look like for the Greens in the Senedd election?
Now onto the Green Party of England and Wales.
At the last Senedd elections, the Greens didn’t win any seats. At face value then, winning even one this year could be seen as a good night for the party.
But a lot has changed since 2021.
One of the biggest things that has changed is the voting system for the elections. Previously, Senedd elections were held under a mixture of first past the post and proportional representation. From now on, the Senedd will be elected through a wholly proportional system.
This makes a big difference for the Greens. Getting over the line in first past the post elections is a tall order for smaller parties. Getting a decent proportion of the vote over a large geographical area is much more achievable.
The other thing that has changed – of course – is the Greens’ national poll rating and levels of public support.
A year ago, the Greens would have been delighted to win one or two seats in this year’s Senedd elections. Now, the Green Party is talking internally about being the party that holds the balance of power after the election and about potentially entering government in Wales.
As a result, a good night for the Greens would mean both the party itself winning a number of seats, but also on Plaid Cymru winning a sufficient number so that a Green/Plaid alliance could stop Reform from running Wales.
What would a good night look like for the Greens in the 2026 English local elections?
The first thing to note about the Green Party’s prospects in the 2026 local elections is their starting point. Over the more than 5,000 seats up for election, the Greens are only defending a tiny proportion – just 170. That means there is plenty of space for the party to make gains.
The second thing to note is where the elections are taking place. This year, every council seat in London is up for election, along with hundreds of others in major urban areas. Clearly, this is fertile territory for the Greens.
As such, a good night for the Greens would see the party make substantial gains. The party’s current position in the polls and emergence as a mass membership party for the first time in its history suggests that is likely to be the direction of travel.
But how many gains would constitute a ‘good night’ in this context?
An MRP poll conducted by More in Common has suggested the Greens could be on track to win as many as 1,000 seats. That would be a truly astonishing result. Anything even anywhere close to that would be unprecedented.
But certainly the Greens will be wanting to make several hundred gains if they are to illustrate that the Zack Polanski bounce can lead to electoral success and that the Gorton and Denton by-election win represents a wider trend rather than a one-off.
Where those gains are concentrated will also make a big difference to the perception of the Greens’ success. The Greens will be extremely keen to make major inroads and emerge as the largest party in multiple inner London Boroughs – places like Hackney, Lewisham and Lambeth.
What would a good night look like for the Greens in the 2026 mayoral elections?
There are six directly elected mayoralties up for grabs this year, and the Greens have a good chance of doing well in several of them.
The big prize is Hackney, where a huge campaigning effort is underway to get Zoë Garbett elected for the Greens. It’ll be Garbett’s third time running for the post, and she’s come second twice before.
Winning the Hackney mayor election would be the obvious sign of a good night for the Greens.
In the other mayoral contests – Lewisham and Newham are the obvious contests where the Green Party will be hopeful of putting in a good showing and to come at least a strong second.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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