It's going to be a very tight contest
As voters in Gorton and Denton head to the polls today, it’s shaping up to be a very tight race, with Labour, the Greens and Reform UK expected to be separated by just a few points.
The by-election was triggered by Andrew Gwynne, who was sacked as a minister and suspended from Labour over offensive WhatsApp messages, standing down due to ill health.
Gwynne won the new Greater Manchester seat in 2024, with a 13,413 vote majority. Prior to boundary changes, Gwynne was the MP for Denton and Reddish from 2005.
Labour held Denton and Reddish from 1983, until it was abolished before the 2024 election.
In 2024, Reform UK candidate Lee Moffitt came second with 5,142 votes, while the Greens’ Amanda Gardner finished third with 4,810.
Now, the race is tight enough that either the Greens or Reform UK could overtake Labour and snatch the seat.
Amid a crowded field of 11 candidates standing in this by-election, the three main contenders are expected to be: Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, Hannah Spencer for the Greens, Reform’s Matt Goodwin.
Predictions
Britain Elects, a poll aggregator which is run by New Statesman data journalist Ben Walker and Lily Jane Summers gave its final forecast for the crunch by-election yesterday.
The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, with ranges:
Green: 31% (25-38%)
Reform: 30% (30-33%)
Labour: 29% (22-34%)
Walker notes that Gorton, the more ethnically diverse part of the constituency, appears to be leaning towards the Greens, while Denton, with its predominantly white working-class population, seems to have higher levels of support for Reform UK.
A poll by Opinium, commissioned by Byline Times had the Greens level with Labour on 28%, one point ahead of Reform on 27%. Among voters most likely to turn out, Greens edge ahead to 30%, with Labour and Reform both on 28%.
An Omnisis poll had the Greens on 22%, Reform UK on 20%, Labour on 18%, Undecideds on 31%. This very much indicates that the result could be decided on the day, by voters who either didn’t want to disclose who they’d vote for or were genuinely undecided.
What do the parties think about their prospects?
Green Party leader Zack Polanski told The Guardian this morning that the party’s internal data suggested it was fractionally behind Reform, with Labour “way, way behind”.
There were reports that Labour may not have been feeling so confident about its prospects, when Keir Starmer refused to say whether he would visit Gorton and Denton ahead of the election.
On Monday, Starmer visited Gorton and Denton. The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar said that the visit showed “growing confidence within Labour – despite Greens making inroads into their vote – that it could win the seat”.
Reform is, of course, publicly claiming it can win the seat, but Left Foot Forward does not have any information from internal sources to confirm how confident the party is behind the scenes.
Tactical voting websites
Labour has been criticised for circulating a leaflet featuring a tactical voting group called Tactical Choice. The group urges people vote Labour in order to beat Reform. However, it turns out the group does not exist.
Other tactical voting websites, which do exist, such as Tactical Vote and Stop Reform UK are saying to vote Green to stop Reform from winning.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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