The party's lead over Labour drops to five points
Reform UK’s popularity has fallen again, with the party now polling just five points ahead of the Labour Party, according to the latest YouGov poll.
The poll found that right now current parliamentary voting intentions are as follows:
- Reform: 24% (-3)
- Labour: 19% (=)
- Conservative: 18% (=)
- Green: 17% (+1)
- Lib Dem: 13% (-1)
The numbers highlight the fragmented nature of the vote under First Past the Post, with just six points separating the three main parties.
While the YouGov poll shows waning support for Reform, it is just one survey, and YouGov has historically polled Reform lower than some other pollsters.
For example, another new poll by JL Partners for the Sun puts Reform on 30%, with Labour eight points behind on 23%.
However, to add to Reform’s woes, according to new odds from Ladbrokes, the party is no longer the favourite to win the most seats at the next general election for the first time since May 2025.
Ladbrokes odds on how many seats each party is predicted to win at the next general election are as follows:
- Labour: 13/8
- Reform: 7/4
- Conservative: 11/2
- Green: 8/1
- Restore Britain: 20/1
- Lib Dem: 40/1
- Your Party: 200/1
The latest odds suggest Labour has a 38% chance of winning the most seats, followed by Reform on 36% and the Conservatives on 15%.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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