A leaked internal Tory party memo shows that the Conservatives expect to lose half their vote share, citing canvassing data from both constituencies.
Two key by-elections are taking place today, with voters heading to the polls in Mid-Bedfordshire as well as in Tamworth.
The results will be key in gauging just how popular Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is doing before a general election expected next year.
The by-elections were caused by the resignation of former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries in Mid-Bedfordshire, while in Tamworth Chris Pincher, the former deputy chief whip, stepped down from his seat after losing an appeal against an eight-week suspension from parliament for groping two men at a private members’ club in the summer of 2022.
The Tories are defending a majority of nearly 25,000 in Mid Bedfordshire. Pincher was elected to the seat in Tamworth with a majority of more than 19,000 in 2019.
A leaked internal Tory party memo shows that the Conservatives expect to lose half their vote share, citing canvassing data from both constituencies.
The memo, which was first reported on by Sky News predicts that the Tories would win between 28% and 33% of the vote in Tamworth, which would be the party’s worst result in recent memory, while in Mid Bedfordshire, they expect their vote share to be cut from 59% to 29%.
It’s expected that most Tory voters will stay at home, but both Labour and the Tories are engaging in expectation management. A Labour Party spokesperson told reporters that the seats up for grabs are “super safe Tory seats” and stressed the need for “perspective”, adding: “Winning both of these seats would be a moonshot for us.”
Mid Beds will be one in particular to watch, given that it’s very much up in the air. The Lib Dems started the campaign as the bookmakers’ favourites but were overtaken by Labour, whereas some odds now favour the Tories.
Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward
To reach hundreds of thousands of new readers and to make the biggest impact we can in the next general election, we need to grow our donor base substantially.
That's why in 2024, we are seeking to generate 150 additional regular donors to support Left Foot Forward's work.
We still need another 124 people to donate to hit the target. You can help. Donate today.