Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election

The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.

A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.

The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.

The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.

In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.

Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.

The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.

Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.

23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”

  1. steve

    Assisting the LibDems in their ambition to get back on the gravy train is pure madness on the part of the Greens and Plaid.

    Of course, Labour is finished unless it is able to introduce Open Selections and oust the PLP Tory destabilisers within its own ranks.

    In the meantime we’re going to have to hope the Greens and Plaid accept their responsibilities pdq.

  2. Tom Sacold

    There are no real socialist candidates standing.

    And so-called ‘progressives’ think that the neo-liberal pink-tory Liberal Democratss are the answer. LOL!!!

  3. Andrew

    With 8%, it’s safe to say that, increasingly, fewer people think that Jeremy Corbyn is the answer (LOL!). I’ve been a lifelong Labour Party supporter. One time committed member. LPYS nearly 40 years ago. Wont vote for the party while JC is its leader. And there are so, so many people like me.

  4. Patrick Newman

    Obviously, Andrew, you are a little gullible to fall for the extraordinarily prolonged character assassination of Corbyn by the media, including the BBC and the kamikaze Blairites in the PLP.

  5. andrew scobbie

    Everything surely should be focussed on getting rid of the Tories everything else pales into insignificance

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