Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election

The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.

A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.

The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.

The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.

In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.

Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.

The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.

Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.

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23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”

  1. steve

    Assisting the LibDems in their ambition to get back on the gravy train is pure madness on the part of the Greens and Plaid.

    Of course, Labour is finished unless it is able to introduce Open Selections and oust the PLP Tory destabilisers within its own ranks.

    In the meantime we’re going to have to hope the Greens and Plaid accept their responsibilities pdq.

  2. Tom Sacold

    There are no real socialist candidates standing.

    And so-called ‘progressives’ think that the neo-liberal pink-tory Liberal Democratss are the answer. LOL!!!

  3. Andrew

    With 8%, it’s safe to say that, increasingly, fewer people think that Jeremy Corbyn is the answer (LOL!). I’ve been a lifelong Labour Party supporter. One time committed member. LPYS nearly 40 years ago. Wont vote for the party while JC is its leader. And there are so, so many people like me.

  4. Patrick Newman

    Obviously, Andrew, you are a little gullible to fall for the extraordinarily prolonged character assassination of Corbyn by the media, including the BBC and the kamikaze Blairites in the PLP.

  5. andrew scobbie

    Everything surely should be focussed on getting rid of the Tories everything else pales into insignificance

  6. Paul Hanmore

    Yes, the first priority must be to oust the Tories – and the Brexit Party menace but Corbyn can never do it. In my opinion he is a useless leader and I can no longer vote for Labour, which I have done ever since Neil Kinnock became the leader. Blair was a winner and I’d have nim back any day. Moan all you like but I cannot vote Labour until some radical changes have been made.

  7. Patrick Newman

    What a load of bollocks, Paul. Blair was the reason we lost in 2010 and the 500 British soldiers he sent to their deaths to fight a war for Bush. There are too many suspiciously similarly worded blog posts that make me think you have never been a Labour supporter!

  8. Thos Walsh

    Hopefully this by-election will reflect the fundamental changes taking place in UK politics and, along with the elevation of Boris the Buffoon, will begin to extricate us at long last from the stifling them-and-us two-party sysem.

    We need government that is relevant and fair to all, not just privileged old Tories with their assumption of entitlement, nor the fantasists who believe that all we need to do is pull up the drawbridge, erect the barricades and then put up a sign saying “open for business”.

    If you want to change the disastrous direction this country is taking, you need to pray for the Lib Dems to win Brecon and Radnorshire. No other party can take this seat and hasten the demise of the most disastrous government and potentially the most unfit and incompetent Prime Minister the UK has had in our lifetimes.

  9. Dave

    You are all deluded if for one moment you think one seat will make any difference. Politicians are all self serving hypocrites all in it for the money and all devolution has created are far more pigs around the trough munching on our taxes.

  10. The cult of Corbyn

    Corbyn and his cult of ‘ kinder politics ‘ warriors who attack and insult everyone who has a differing opinion to them, see Patrick Newman above, have enabled the Tories to inflict austerity on Cymru for almost a decade. With Johnson in No.10 the only option is to elect a Liberal Democrat MP in Brecon and Radnor and begin the process of eradicating the Tory government majority at Westminster, so we can restore a degree of equality in the country.

  11. DAvid Smith

    The party is always correct. The great leader of the party Comrade JC has evaluated all circumstances and has dialectically determined the correct position on Brexit based on a correct working class analysis, understanding the leave supporting analysis of the comrade ex-min ers in Derbyshire, whilst avoiding alienating PB remain fellow travellers.

  12. David temperley

    A couple of posts hit the nail on the head, today the key issue is to reverse the ERG sponsored Brexit, in place due to lies and further lies encouraged by our new PM. What a farce. The Lib Dem’s, the Greens Plaid Cymru have all made their position clear. Labour have vacillated hot and cold for so long, they are as responsible as the Tories for the current situation. I still have no idea what they will actually promote on the Brexit issue come an election. I have no strong party allegiance, other than being anti-Tory for 50 years, but I know who I will be voting for in the next election. Jo Swinson’s election as LD leader is a beacon of hope amongst the darkness of Johnson vs Corbyn.

  13. Ian Robertson

    Apparently over half of Conservative members would be prepared to harm the economy to achieve their virtually religious Brexit. They would also not mind splitting up the union to achieve this. Do anything to get this lot out of power.

  14. Pat MS

    I agree with those who prioritise defeating the Tories and the Brexit ‘Party’. It’s great that Plaid Cymru and the Greens have been big enough to stand aside for the LibDems. A pity that Labour has not done the same. There were several local agreements between Labour, LibDems and Greens in 2017. Labour got Ealing, Cable got back into Twickenham and the Greens hung onto Brighton. Until the proper PR that Labour has long avoided is rolled out, the best bet against the rabid right is a coalition of Labour plus all the Remain parties. This could win massively at the next election, though perhaps with no party with an absolute majority – but that’s the new normal. I suspect that Corbyn and his Marxist supporters have analysed that Brexit is a good thing, the EU being a largely capitalist venture preventing true socialism in their eyes, so believe they will storm to power once the realities of Brexit start hitting the poorest hardest. More likely, the Americans will circle over our decaying public sector and NHS and complete the Tories’ privatisation of British (well English/Welsh, as Scotland will quickly break away and return to the EU and there could be interesting changes in NI) state assets and this WelshEngland rump will become a vassal state of Trump’s USA, something surely Corbyn abhors. So much for taking back power! Pat (once a Macmillanite, i.e. genuine one-nation Tory, but drifting leftwards as I get older, now supporting the Green Party).

  15. arwyn thomas

    I was in the LPYS 40 years ago. We were all solidly left wing. Revolutionary even. I can’t imagine many who would not be backing Corbyn now.

  16. Chris Franks

    Well done to Plaid Cymru and the Green for behaving like adults and maximising the chances of keeping out the Tories/Brexit Party. Shame on Labour and its failing leader.

  17. Sian Caiach

    Plaid’s deal with the LibDems could gift them Plaid’s voters, 3% of the last Westminster vote and the greens didn’t stand so hard to tell impact.
    Problem for Plaid’s Leader, Adam Price is his previous public statement that he is a socialist first and nationalist second. I’m sure a deal with a Unionist Party is going down not too well with many Plaid Members and I wonder whether the promised reciprocal agreements in future elections with centrist, anti-independence LibDems will be honoured and convince the activists it was worth loosing credibility for? .

  18. Neil McCart

    What puzzles me is why the Tories put up a convicted criminal fraudster as their candidate – does it reflect their Tory values, or are they setting up a scapegoat for the trouncing they are going to receive? Possibly both.

  19. a2c

    Iss Queen Jo and the Lib Dems all the way for a2c. There the ones who will elp us on low wages unlike Labour who will take ourn ahrt of the EU n destroy jobs n trade if Corbyn gets is way. The Lib Dems will bring in more local police, save the NHS n make the country greener. Iss Lib Dems til I die, as a council tenant I’d never vote labour again.

  20. Nigel Grant

    Is that the same Jo Swinson who happily supported the Tory Party In introducing their Austerity Policies and who wanted a statue to honour Margaret Thatcher. Don’t be fooled by her sweet talk. She is not to be trusted and is no friend of the poor and vulnerable in our society.

  21. Michael Ladomery

    To those labour people going on about lib dems supporting austerity – apart from that being nonsense, the lib dems successfully pushed for raising the lower tax threshold, we are in 2019 not 2010. If the tories have their no deal brexit it will be sever austerity as the economy tanks. Support the lib dems or, de facto, allow a tory in to boost Boris. Your choice

  22. Bolsover Labour remainer

    Time to stop the mad quitters, and vote Lib Dem one time only ay any seat where the Tories could lose with a united remain vote. Then sort out the consequences later when Boris and Skinner have gone, and our future in Europe is assured.

  23. Sean Hogan

    2 of the 4 MEPs sent from Wales to Brussels are Brexit Party, and Farage in no mood for his candidate in Brecon to stand aside for Chris Davies. Students & recent graduates shouldn’t forget how LibDems betrayed them in 2010 by tripling tuition fees. Quite a legacy – a millstone crushing coming generations – yet Jo Swinson&co still in denial about all that. Boris making it too easy for them all by ducking Brecon today. Makes both him and Davies look bad. This seat is significant / pwysig iawn.

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