Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election

The Lib Dems look set to win back the seat they lost in 2015.

A poll by Number Cruncher Politics suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a sizeable lead in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

The poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on 43% ahead of the Tories (28%), the Brexit Party (20%) and Labour (8%). The Greens and Plaid Cymru did not stand.

The by-election is being held after the Tory MP Chris Davies was convicted of claiming false expenses and a petition to recall him was succesful. Davies is standing for the seat again.

The poll of 509 adults was conducted online between the 10th and 18th of July and the election will be held on 1 August.

In 2017, the Liberal Democrats finished second in the seat – on 29% while Labour finished third on 17%.

Before the Tories won it in 2015, the seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997. Labour have not held the seat since 1979.

The consituentcy is a large rural one in Wales, along the English border. It is older and wealthier than the Welsh average and Brecon is its largest town.

Update: This article originally stated that Labour had not held the seat since 1970. This has been corrected to 1979.

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23 Responses to “Polling shows Lib Dem lead in Brecon by-election”

  1. Paul Hanmore

    Yes, the first priority must be to oust the Tories – and the Brexit Party menace but Corbyn can never do it. In my opinion he is a useless leader and I can no longer vote for Labour, which I have done ever since Neil Kinnock became the leader. Blair was a winner and I’d have nim back any day. Moan all you like but I cannot vote Labour until some radical changes have been made.

  2. Patrick Newman

    What a load of bollocks, Paul. Blair was the reason we lost in 2010 and the 500 British soldiers he sent to their deaths to fight a war for Bush. There are too many suspiciously similarly worded blog posts that make me think you have never been a Labour supporter!

  3. Thos Walsh

    Hopefully this by-election will reflect the fundamental changes taking place in UK politics and, along with the elevation of Boris the Buffoon, will begin to extricate us at long last from the stifling them-and-us two-party sysem.

    We need government that is relevant and fair to all, not just privileged old Tories with their assumption of entitlement, nor the fantasists who believe that all we need to do is pull up the drawbridge, erect the barricades and then put up a sign saying “open for business”.

    If you want to change the disastrous direction this country is taking, you need to pray for the Lib Dems to win Brecon and Radnorshire. No other party can take this seat and hasten the demise of the most disastrous government and potentially the most unfit and incompetent Prime Minister the UK has had in our lifetimes.

  4. Dave

    You are all deluded if for one moment you think one seat will make any difference. Politicians are all self serving hypocrites all in it for the money and all devolution has created are far more pigs around the trough munching on our taxes.

  5. The cult of Corbyn

    Corbyn and his cult of ‘ kinder politics ‘ warriors who attack and insult everyone who has a differing opinion to them, see Patrick Newman above, have enabled the Tories to inflict austerity on Cymru for almost a decade. With Johnson in No.10 the only option is to elect a Liberal Democrat MP in Brecon and Radnor and begin the process of eradicating the Tory government majority at Westminster, so we can restore a degree of equality in the country.

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