John Curtice has looked at surveys on the popularity of a second referendum. And while wording matters, support is definitely growing for a People's Vote.
Professor John Curtice has become a bit of a Twitter celebrity on the back of his detailed examinations of the many elections and referenda of the past few years.
Curtice’s mad scientist aesthetic and dry humour have brought some much needed respite in these confusing and often tense times.
So it was with great curiosity that the social media bubble turned to read the political analyst’s take on 11 different polls on the popularity of the People’s Vote.
Curtice collected questions from renowned polling agencies YouGov, Survation, BMG Research, Opinium and ICM, all dating between April and August of this year.
Professor Curtice found that while there is a clear increase in support for some type of vote on the deal, those quizzed are more likely to support the idea when asked about a “public” vote rather than a second referendum.
After ordering the polls by which had the highest support for a new vote, Curtice notes:
“(…) only three of the questions refer to holding another referendum as opposed to some kind of vote of the ‘public’. These three polls account for three of the four entries at the bottom of our table.”
Also to note is that only four of the 11 surveys actually specifies what options would be on the ballot paper were the public to once more vote on Brexit. These too lead to poorer results for a People’s Vote than more ambiguously phrased questions.
The poll with the highest ranking support for a vote was conducted by YouGov and focused on whether MPs or the public should vote on the final deal, if negotiations between Westminster and Brussels break down.
Curtice points out that the nature of the vote itself, however, influences the results of the poll.
11 differently worded opinion poll questions on new EU referendum, compiled by John Curtice https://t.co/U52pvz0x3J pic.twitter.com/92xeEUvePd
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) 28 August 2018
Leave supporters prefer polls asking them about a “public vote” rather than a “referendum”, and are far more open to polls that do not only see as the alternatives a Leave/Remain binary.
On the other hand, Remain voters are in their majority in support of a new ballot of any kind, especially when assuming that remaining inside the EU is one of the options on the paper.
What has undoubtedly risen is the antipathy towards the government’s solutions for Brexit.
According to Curtice, YouGov data shows that while pre-Chequers Agreement around 45% of people were against another referendum:
“(…) in three readings taken since the Chequers Agreement, 40% have said they are in favour [of a new referendum], almost matching the 41% who are against.”
In fact, in their latest survey from late July:
“YouGov found for the first time slightly more (42%) saying they were in favour than stating that they were against (40%).”
It should also be noted that Curtice advises that further data should be collected for a more accurate picture, given the recent nature of the events.
One thing, however, is clear to the political analyst and to us: Whatever happens in the coming months, politicians will have to pay extra attention to the way they word their questions.
Joana Ramiro is a reporter for Left Foot Forward. You can follow her on Twitter for all sorts of rants here.
To reach hundreds of thousands of new readers we need to grow our donor base substantially.
That's why in 2024, we are seeking to generate 150 additional regular donors to support Left Foot Forward's work.
We still need another 117 people to donate to hit the target. You can help. Donate today.