A leadership election may be the only way to break the deadlock, but its outcome is far from clear
Image: John McDonnell
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the only way to break the Labour Party deadlock will be to put the decision to the members in a leadership election.
Corbyn has been hit by nearly 50 resignations in the last two days and today faces a no confidence ballot, in which up to 70 per cent of his colleagues are expected to vote against him.
Cynics would say that Corbyn’s intransigence is simply a ploy to save his own skin, either by forcing the PLP to back down rather than engaging in another bruising and possibly humiliating leadership contest or, if they do insist on triggering an election, by actually humiliating them with another huge victory.
His supporters would argue that the leader has never enjoyed the support of his colleagues, that the PLP no longer effectively represents the will of the party membership and that Corbyn’s concern is actually not for himself, but for the members who deserve to have their views represented.
According to the cynical view, Corbyn is extremely confident that he still has the support of members and will use it to shout down his colleagues.
According to the more idealistic view, Corbyn believes he has the support of members but, even if he doesn’t, is willing to risk his leadership to ensure the decision is democratically made.
As for his colleagues, many report that in recent days the mood of the party has shifted and that ordinary members, as well as cabinet members, have lost confidence in Corbyn because he did not represent their interests and values on the EU.
For months, Europe has been a point of difference between Corbyn and the Corbynistas, who are more enthusiastic about the EU than he is.
Senior members of the Remain campaign suggest that his grudging support for EU membership was primarily driven by a need to align his views with those of his young supporters.
Indeed, a poll of Labour Party members conducted in February showed that 82 per cent of those who voted for Corbyn in the last leadership election also supported remaining in the EU.
Labour’s future now depends on those people. Some of them had probably lost confidence in Corbyn even before the referendum.
For another segment, the shock of Brexit will have drastically shifted their view of Labour politics and of Corbyn.
Both these groups will be ready to flip, provided that a convincing alternative leader is put forward.
And then there is a segment of Labour Party members (many also Momentum members) who cannot be swayed, who will vote for Corbyn in any circumstance.
John McDonnell claims that 10,000 of these people crowded into Parliament Square last night, proving that Corbyn is ‘going nowhere’.
But 10,000 (even if that many actually attended) is a small fraction of Labour’s membership of nearly 400,000.
Last summer Corbyn was given an overwhelming democratic mandate, and perhaps he is right to respect that mandate until it becomes absolutely clear that it no longer exists.
But that day could come sooner than he expects.
Niamh Ní Mhaoileoin is editor of Left Foot Forward.
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22 Responses to “Is Corbyn’s mandate as robust as he thinks it is?”
Martyn Wood-Bevan
Just taking a break from reading endless posts about new members joining Labour precisely to increase Jeremy’s Support. The Media, including yourselves risk being way out of touch. Jeremy was the BEST Remain performer in the whole debate and I watched several of his speeches and talks. Compared to the great Media debates which were just Rubbish. Many party members and others are absolutely furious at this attempted coup and will fight it vigorously. Glad we now have a decent shadow cabinet!
Nick
Jeremy is still the best leader by far and would win again the leadership contest if one was called
however to win a general election where you need to convert conservative voters over to labour then no he couldn’t do that but neither could anyone else at this time
we have to face facts this is not Einstein stuff ‘Jeremy is labour the rest of the labour mp’s bar a few are liberal at best and conservative at worse and that’s the bottom line
we have just seen how the country is by voting to leave the EU on the race card and had that not been part of the EU debate the remain camp would have won hands down
To try to run a country like it should be run in a fair and honest manner for all will never be possible as the country and a large chunk of it’s people wont to keep going over the old ground of immigration and all that could ever achieve is not only uk instability but world instability as it panders to those on the selfish right wing of society who only ever care about themselves
you only have to look at the right wing faces of the EU out campaign from across Europe and Donald trump to see there is no way Jeremy could ever become the prime minister as a decent human being
those days are over and there is no way on earth there coming back. the future of the uk and Europe will be a downward spiral of chaos led by the likes of Boris Johnson etc
Nick
Had the EU been equal throughout with all of it’s laws and policy’s and acted like one country like the USA then things would have been very different from the off ‘ yes that could have worked and like the usa it does work
but to have a mish mash of rules and regulations with a different set of criterias of tax /benefits /housing /wages / health etc for each of the EU countries that was never ever viable in the first place as all that would do would be to have hot spots throughout Europe of people in where there was work
at the end of the day common sense is the key like i’ts always been
David Butler
Am not convinced your correspondent isn’t seeking to generate equivocation among Momentum ranks rather than reflect emergence of it: ‘many report that in recent days’ … ‘the shock of Brexit will have drastically shifted their view of Labour politics and of Corbyn’. These comments are speculative at best. More cynically, one sniffs on the air the distinct scent of BBC political correspondent citizen K’s insidious, unsourced and/or mendacious anti-corbyn campaign.
Eric
This is a horrible situation for Britain to find itself in.
Jeremy has lost the support of the vast number of those who work most closely with him. Yes, some have always opposed him on ideological grounds but many, I believe have simply lost faith in his ability to lead an effective opposition and win the next general election.
Jeremy needs to go of his own accord. Let those who voted for him find another candidate that will unite the party and not divide it. At the moment we are staring at the Labour party splitting and if it does the tories will be in power for another decade and more likely than not Scotland will hold another referendum and leave the UK. Both will be a tragedy, an avoidable tragedy, for those who the Labour movement seek to represent and protect.