A leadership election may be the only way to break the deadlock, but its outcome is far from clear
Image: John McDonnell
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the only way to break the Labour Party deadlock will be to put the decision to the members in a leadership election.
Corbyn has been hit by nearly 50 resignations in the last two days and today faces a no confidence ballot, in which up to 70 per cent of his colleagues are expected to vote against him.
Cynics would say that Corbyn’s intransigence is simply a ploy to save his own skin, either by forcing the PLP to back down rather than engaging in another bruising and possibly humiliating leadership contest or, if they do insist on triggering an election, by actually humiliating them with another huge victory.
His supporters would argue that the leader has never enjoyed the support of his colleagues, that the PLP no longer effectively represents the will of the party membership and that Corbyn’s concern is actually not for himself, but for the members who deserve to have their views represented.
According to the cynical view, Corbyn is extremely confident that he still has the support of members and will use it to shout down his colleagues.
According to the more idealistic view, Corbyn believes he has the support of members but, even if he doesn’t, is willing to risk his leadership to ensure the decision is democratically made.
As for his colleagues, many report that in recent days the mood of the party has shifted and that ordinary members, as well as cabinet members, have lost confidence in Corbyn because he did not represent their interests and values on the EU.
For months, Europe has been a point of difference between Corbyn and the Corbynistas, who are more enthusiastic about the EU than he is.
Senior members of the Remain campaign suggest that his grudging support for EU membership was primarily driven by a need to align his views with those of his young supporters.
Indeed, a poll of Labour Party members conducted in February showed that 82 per cent of those who voted for Corbyn in the last leadership election also supported remaining in the EU.
Labour’s future now depends on those people. Some of them had probably lost confidence in Corbyn even before the referendum.
For another segment, the shock of Brexit will have drastically shifted their view of Labour politics and of Corbyn.
Both these groups will be ready to flip, provided that a convincing alternative leader is put forward.
And then there is a segment of Labour Party members (many also Momentum members) who cannot be swayed, who will vote for Corbyn in any circumstance.
John McDonnell claims that 10,000 of these people crowded into Parliament Square last night, proving that Corbyn is ‘going nowhere’.
But 10,000 (even if that many actually attended) is a small fraction of Labour’s membership of nearly 400,000.
Last summer Corbyn was given an overwhelming democratic mandate, and perhaps he is right to respect that mandate until it becomes absolutely clear that it no longer exists.
But that day could come sooner than he expects.
Niamh Ní Mhaoileoin is editor of Left Foot Forward.
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22 Responses to “Is Corbyn’s mandate as robust as he thinks it is?”
James Kemp
Simple question to this blog do you really think left? Because i suggest people tart counting the amount of anti-Corbin slanted articles or little digs from most of the commenters that write the main stories i have to ask why!
Corbin was elected with 96.5% of the vote that’s a mandate the whole secret ballot to protect the MP’s so the electorate cannot punish them is straight out of the right playbook ignore the wishes of the membership as standard. do you the writer think this is correct way of treating the membership? This is just a planned coup that’s month in the making and timed and communicated with the gleeful right wing press do we really need the left press to join in, i see a tiny amount of anti-Corbin support and a mass annoyed to the point of leaving Labour and walking away maybe forever like in my case if Corbin leaves i will tear up my card and don’t come asking for my vote!
Robert Jones
The obvious answer to your headline question is ‘how robust do you think he thinks his mandate is?’, though granted that’s a question in response to a question. I think he knows – he’s been a polician for 40 odd years – that support can be fickle, and turned off quickly: that would appear to be the calculation of some of those opposing him. However, it’s perfectly clear that, say, Tristram Hunt couldn’t get a fraction of this number of people out on the streets; neither could Hilary, although his dad could have done; nor could anyone else currently uneasily positioning themselves to stab the leader, and then have a stab at succeeding him. The whole problem with this coup is that whatever one might think about Jeremy Corbyn’s abilities as a leader – and I’m not a disciple: I’ve waited in vain for substantial policy initiatives, though I waited just as vainly for Ed Miliband to produce anything but childish sound-bites – the opposition to him has nothing and no one to offer. Chuka Ummuna – for whatever good reasons – withdrew last time; Yvette Cooper – probably the safer choice – failed once and might be unwilling to try again: if she does, she’ll need a far better platform than she offered us before; Dan Jarvis didn’t want to put his name forward – and I don’t really want a leader who has had to be bullied, cajoled, and pleaded into standing; tell me what’s left? John Mann? Stephen Danczuk? What are we going to do, look for a leader from the House of Lords? Invite Ed back? It’s easy to betray a leader you don’t like and never did – surely we all know that his performance in the referendum, in which over 60% of Labour voters chose Remain despite the fact that there’s always been a strong anti-EU strand in the party, isn’t the sole or even main cause of this revolt – it’s something else again to find one in whom the PLP AND the mass of the membership has confidence, and I don’t see a single credible figure standing out from the crowd.
I object, incidentally, to your phrase about Corbyn “saving his skin”: do you REALLY suppose that any sane person would want to lead the rabble in the House of Commons, or put themselves through this kind of emotional turmoil as they approach their 70th year? I suggest Left Foot Forward, and everyone else in the Labour movement, shows a little bloody gratitude to the man for being prepared to stick his head over the parapet knowing he’d be shot at from day one.
Even in purely tactical terms, this coup attempt has come too soon and hasn’t been properly planned – the conspirators and those who have simply become frustrated with Corbyn and depressed beyond all reason by the Exit vote have stumbled into a fight that actually no one can now win. What did they think would happen? I knew he wouldn’t resign: I’ve never met the man, still less worked with him – so why didn’t they know? They hope to keep his name off the ballot paper in a leadership election – do they really think the membership in the country would be prepared to tolerate that?
These people couldn’t run a bath, and have the gall to question Corbyn’s leadership? Motes and beams, ladies and gentlemen – motes and bloody beams…
JOHN FARRAR
A lot will depend upon who runs against him . To be fair to him his was easily the best campaign last year , the others really didn’t cover themselves in glory .
JOHN FARRAR
A lot will depend upon who runs against him . To be fair to him his was easily the best campaign last year , the others really didn’t cover themselves in glory . If a strong unifying progressive candidate free from all Blairite influences emerges that unions approve of then Corbyn may be in trouble but he may also feel his work is done if it’s a good leader you never know , however given the strategic timing of.the coup it could be that talent is thin on the ground
John Davies
The ‘coup’ has been in the planning process well before the Referendum, so what does that say! The PLP has for too long been controlled by the right and its Blair acolytes. It worries me that I cannot find unbiased reporting in the media including the BBC and Guardian. We need, must have change, a “system of alliances” with the entire left, be it Green, Scottish, Welsh et al. This democracy of our isn’t. The constituents, us, are ignored, patronised as stupid. This change can only come through unity of purpose and Corybn is the man of the moment. Through him we an build a true consensus and a system that in inclusive.