A leadership election may be the only way to break the deadlock, but its outcome is far from clear
Image: John McDonnell
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the only way to break the Labour Party deadlock will be to put the decision to the members in a leadership election.
Corbyn has been hit by nearly 50 resignations in the last two days and today faces a no confidence ballot, in which up to 70 per cent of his colleagues are expected to vote against him.
Cynics would say that Corbyn’s intransigence is simply a ploy to save his own skin, either by forcing the PLP to back down rather than engaging in another bruising and possibly humiliating leadership contest or, if they do insist on triggering an election, by actually humiliating them with another huge victory.
His supporters would argue that the leader has never enjoyed the support of his colleagues, that the PLP no longer effectively represents the will of the party membership and that Corbyn’s concern is actually not for himself, but for the members who deserve to have their views represented.
According to the cynical view, Corbyn is extremely confident that he still has the support of members and will use it to shout down his colleagues.
According to the more idealistic view, Corbyn believes he has the support of members but, even if he doesn’t, is willing to risk his leadership to ensure the decision is democratically made.
As for his colleagues, many report that in recent days the mood of the party has shifted and that ordinary members, as well as cabinet members, have lost confidence in Corbyn because he did not represent their interests and values on the EU.
For months, Europe has been a point of difference between Corbyn and the Corbynistas, who are more enthusiastic about the EU than he is.
Senior members of the Remain campaign suggest that his grudging support for EU membership was primarily driven by a need to align his views with those of his young supporters.
Indeed, a poll of Labour Party members conducted in February showed that 82 per cent of those who voted for Corbyn in the last leadership election also supported remaining in the EU.
Labour’s future now depends on those people. Some of them had probably lost confidence in Corbyn even before the referendum.
For another segment, the shock of Brexit will have drastically shifted their view of Labour politics and of Corbyn.
Both these groups will be ready to flip, provided that a convincing alternative leader is put forward.
And then there is a segment of Labour Party members (many also Momentum members) who cannot be swayed, who will vote for Corbyn in any circumstance.
John McDonnell claims that 10,000 of these people crowded into Parliament Square last night, proving that Corbyn is ‘going nowhere’.
But 10,000 (even if that many actually attended) is a small fraction of Labour’s membership of nearly 400,000.
Last summer Corbyn was given an overwhelming democratic mandate, and perhaps he is right to respect that mandate until it becomes absolutely clear that it no longer exists.
But that day could come sooner than he expects.
Niamh Ní Mhaoileoin is editor of Left Foot Forward.
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22 Responses to “Is Corbyn’s mandate as robust as he thinks it is?”
Martin Read
Personally, I have been impressed by Corbyn’s consistency and determination not to be dragged down into the pit of despair and empty posturing of other MPs. Surely it was his ability to cut through all of this that re-engaged so many disenfranchised voters. The Remain Campaign may well have offered by far the best option, but many of its advocates were also far from honourable. Corbyn’s role and his media persona seldom one and the same.
Those I know who were passionately ‘Remain’ said that they could feel the argument being lost when the vacuity of the Leavers argument was purposefully reduced to a couple of empty slogans. ‘Take back control,’ will surely come back to haunt many of those who voted to ‘leave.’ The ‘Remain’ camp, by contrast, appeared forever torn between deciding to fling back ecrement or else countering with the more well-considered and lengthy rebuttals. Tabloid mentality wins again, except of course we all lost.
But, aside from all the despair and dread, there has been something else that that has come to light. And this is the painful undermining of all that Corbyn has sought to achieve, by the likes of ‘Left Foot Forward.’ The tabloids were true to form from the get-go, the BBC appeared alarmingly partisan, as did the no-longer-so-Liberal Grauniad, and ‘Left Foot Forward’ has shown itself to be just as undeserving of its self-proclaimed political allegiances.
We can pretend that this is about a vote of no confidence, but really it is nothing short of a long and drawn out establishment coup.
Sucheta
I suggest you read this blog http://www.thecanary.co/2016/06/27/tony-blairs-crony-elite-want-to-snatch-labour-back-from-the-working-class/ to get an idea of the forked tongue of Left Foot Forward.
Martin Read
Thank you, Sucheta. We knew that this was happening, but this article names names and fleshes out our suspicions to the full. All the more reason to rally behind Corbyn.
Lesley
I agree with Martin Read. At last we have someone in Jeremy who is worth voting for. Under him, the membership has grown as people saw the quiet dignity of the man and his thoughtful political style, and someone who stands by his principles rather than spouting rhetoric and vague promises. He asked the ordinary members for their opinions and questions for PMQ. This has never happened before.
I cannot believe the arrogance of these dissenters who have failed to support Jeremy from the start, ignoring the wishes of the majority of Party members. It is this attitude which has disillusioned the electorate and turned people off politics in general. At last there is an alternative to “all parties are the same”. I am furious with these MPs who have total disregard and contempt for the Labour Party members and their opinions! They alone have set the Party back years, just when it was starting to recover from the Blair years and Miliband who lost the whole of the Scottish vote. I have started sending emails of protest to all these “blue-Labour” MPs. I would leave the Party today, but it would not help Jeremy at a leadership challenge. They should all be uniting behind him to get involved with the REAL threat of EU exit – not divide the party with animosity. It has made us a laughing stock.
Carey
Thank you Sucheta, Now it all falls in to place re Left Foot Forward. I had no idea how tightly formulated it all was. It also seems that my comment to this discussion sent yesterday, has not been included. I basically said that I was sick of their attacks on Jeremy Corbyn and same in rest of “liberal left” media.. Left Foot Forward are you censoring comment?