Each of the candidates poses a different kind of threat to Cameron
Public perception of politicians is at an all-time low. An Ipsos MORI survey conducted in January showed that only 16 per cent of Britons trust politicians to tell the truth, well below journalists, estate agents and bankers.
Following Labour’s defeat, shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt stated on ITV’s The Agenda that the public simply ‘didn’t trust Labour’ to deliver.
In this climate, the next leader of the Labour Party will face an uphill battle. To win the 2020 election, he or she will have to regain seats in Scotland, regain the support of the working class whilst combating the rise of UKIP, galvanise young voters and non-voters, win back Middle England and hold onto core voters in traditional Labour heartlands.
To make matters worse, the potential boundary changes will make a Labour majority very difficult indeed.
But winning the 2020 election is achievable – provided a strong leader emerges who is willing to address the failings of past Labour governments and move forward with a progressive vision.
The next leader must be trusted around the country, north and south, and represent all cross sections of the community.
To achieve this, Labour cannot afford to choose the wrong candidate. There are many examples of how strong leaders can unite parties to impressive victories in tough times, but three immediately spring to mind:
Tony Blair came to power on the back of 18 long years of Tory rule. Years of hardship, coupled with a young, charismatic leader who told Britain that it deserved better, gave Labour a landslide victory.
Similarly, Barack Obama seized on the alienation many Americans felt after eight years of George W. Bush, and he swept to victory on the promise of hope and change along with the feeling of a new dawn for American politics.
Nicola Sturgeon’s rise to prominence was equally as impressive. She combined her undeniable political savvy with a new message that Scotland could affect Westminster politics. After years of Westminster rule and limited devolution, she tapped into the local sentiment.
The current crop of leadership candidates may not have Blair’s charisma, Obama’s rock star appeal or Sturgeon’s nationalist ideals. But, as they showed at the televised hustings, they would each pose a different threat in the 2020 general election after 10 years of Tory austerity.
So what do they have to offer?
Frontrunner Andy Burnham emphasised his Merseyside roots at the hustings, keen to demonstrate that he is outside of the ‘Westminster elite.’
If he is elected this phrase may become indispensable to Burnham, as he tries to distance himself as much as possible from the Conservatives, and gain the trust of a public disillusioned by a decade of austerity. This everyman approach could be the deciding factor in convincing Britain to vote Labour.
Yvette Cooper would also be a thorn in David Cameron’s side, though for different reasons.
Cooper is a smart, sophisticated and likeable candidate, who has emerged from her husband’s shadow since his election defeat. She has a wealth of parliamentary experience, having served as shadow home secretary, and secured an impressive 59 nominations, just 2 behind Burnham.
If successful, Cooper would no doubt be a tough opponent, though she would need to demonstrate a clear advantage over Cameron on a weekly basis.
Liz Kendall would be a different threat to the Tories altogether. Perceived as the most right wing of the four candidates, she was right when she stated she would be the leader the Tories ‘would fear’ most, as her strong convictions and quick reactions make her a political force to be reckoned with.
At hustings she had the line of the night, when she rebuked Andy Burnham’s statement that the party comes first with a curt ‘the country comes first’.
Last-minute addition Jeremy Corbyn made the cut by ‘borrowing’ votes from other candidates, but at the hustings many argued he was the standout performer.
With his strong anti-austerity message and loyal following in the left of the party, he would be making arguments that haven’t been aired on the front bench in years.
Such a left wing leader could well be Labour’s undoing at the next election, but if the Tory cuts are as deep as expected, Corbyn’s message could rally the country behind him in 2020.
The Labour Party has some tough challenges ahead, but it is very likely that whoever emerges from the leadership election will fare better than the press currently predict.
Because with five more years of public sector cuts and austerity, all four candidates have the potential to cause upset in 2020.
Ryan Maynes is a freelance journalist and Labour activist. Follow him on Twitter
53 Responses to “Why this leadership contest is so crucial to the future of the Labour party”
AlanGiles
Silly woman. If you must spam websites with your tripe at least remember in the UK we use Pounds not Dollars. Lazy idiot
AlanGiles
You have been asking “tough questions” for twenty years and look where it has got you – a group of frightend wannabes too frightend to depart from the Daily Mail/Sun agenda in case it upsets the tabloids and their readers
AlanGiles
Aided and abetted, it has to be said, Rob, by some “Labour” supporters who hope they can have 1997 back
Harold
The position is usually Governments lose elections not oppositions win, indeed even after the Iraq invasion Blair still won another election with a 50 odd seat majority. No matter what people say someone voted for him. Labour shot itself in the foot by not challenging the Tories line on Labours running of the economy, secondly they did not put forward a realistic alternative, the line we are not as bad as the Tories was never going to win. People thought if I am going to get a kicking I might as well have it from the experts.
The new Leader needs a team who can put forward policies which people will believe will make their lives, their children’s lives and their neighbours lives better. Can you remember any of the pledges made back in May? I cannot. The offering needs to be clear and simple, it will depend a lot on what happens in the next five years, but offering to be better Tories than the Tories is not an answer.
AW1983
Corbyn’s a real wild card. The common assumption, which may well be right, is that he is too left wing to win a general election. A full on assault by the largely right wing print media won’t help either.
And yet there are too many unknown factors that make him much more intriguing a candidate than just some ‘unelectable lefty.’ His age might work to Labour’s advantage; older voters who supported the Tories in large numbers might be won back by someone they can better relate with, especially if he does what the older generation tends to like and makes clear what’s in it for them (Balls promise to means test Winter Fuel Allowance, although the right thing to do, was never going to go down well with this particularly self interested demographic). Corbyn isn’t likely to cut any of their benefits.
Also, we just don’t know if there is any support for a more left wing party despite what the right wing media say. There hasn’t been a left wing party on offer (with a chance of winning in a FPTP fear of the alternative driven system) since 1987, or maybe even 1983, so it’s hard to see how he would perform. He could be annihilated but equally he might change the narrative of British politics; at the very least, Cameron will find his dubious spin harder to perform with a more hostile opposition and it might reign the Tories in as what they can get away with narrows. The anti-austerity narrative might just redeem Labour and the left.
What I am certain of though is that the wooden Burnham, Cooper and Kendall will not beat Cameron. Cameron is much better at pretending to have conviction than they are (although we all know his backbenchers call the shots these days). Also, they are tainted with a very negative public perception of Labour at the moment.