Economic update – January 2011
Tony Dolphin, of the Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr), looks at the state of the economy as we enter the new year.
Tony Dolphin
Economic forecasts reveal high degree of uncertainty
Worries about a ‘double dip’ recession in the UK have faded in recent weeks. But recent forecasts reveal how much uncertainty there is about the economic outlook right now.
Economic update – December 2010
There is a widespread view that future growth in the UK economy will be more sustainable if it is driven by net exports and business investment and not by household spending. The third quarter GDP numbers provided mixed news for supporters of this view.
OECD forecasts modest growth for UK economy
The OECD released its latest Economic Outlook today, setting out its forecasts for developments in its member countries. It is supportive of the UK government’s fiscal tightening, describing it as “substantial but necessary”, but warns that it will, when combined with weak real income growth, mean moderate output growth over the next two years.
High inflation puts on Plan B on hold – is there a Plan C?
George Osborne has announced the biggest tightening of fiscal policy over a four-year period since World War II, to be achieved mainly through cuts in public spending. He believes that it will lead to lower long-term interest rates and, by increasing certainty about future levels of taxes, boost consumer and business confidence.
Bank of England forecasts lower growth and high inflation
In his opening remarks at the press conference to launch the report, Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, highlighted how these uncertainties mean that inflation could turn out higher than forecast (for example if commodity prices continue to increase at a rapid pace or if inflation expectations rise) or lower than forecast (if wage increases remain low and import price inflation fades).
Ireland left with nowhere to go, damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t
If Ireland tightens fiscal policy to reduce the deficit, output growth will be even weaker in the short-term, pushing the deficit back up again. And if it cuts taxes or increases spending to boost economic activity, the deficit will also increase. It is damned if it acts, and damned if it doesn’t. Unfortunately, the only way out may be recourse to the IMF.
Economic update – November 2010
The UK economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2010, twice as fast as expected by City economists. As in the second quarter, growth was boosted by a large increase in the output of the construction sector, but manufacturing output also increased strongly and there were solid increases in output across the service sector. Growth in the last three quarters has averaged an annual rate of 3.2 per cent.
More evidence housing market has lost its momentum
Figures released today by the Bank of England suggest households’ demand for borrowing remained weak in September. Net lending secured on dwellings (i.e. mortgage borrowing) increased by only £0.1 billion in the month and was just 0.8 per cent higher than in September 2009.
Economic growth beats expectations
The UK economy grew far more rapidly than expected in the third quarter. Real GDP (the total output of the economy) increased by 0.8 per cent and was 2.9 per cent higher than in the third quarter of 2009, according to figures released today by the Office for National Statistics. Economists had expected an increase of just 0.4 per cent.