Is Robert Jenrick about to abandon his constituency to keep a seat in parliament?
Jenrick could be switching to a more winnable seat
Robert Jenrick is currently the Reform MP for the Nottinghamshire constituency of Newark. At the 2024 general election, he was elected on a reduced majority as a Conservative. His Reform competitor at the time came a distant third.
Jenrick could be looking at those results and questioning how keen his constituents are on having a Reform MP. A leaflet that has been landing on residents’ doormats in the neighbouring Bassetlaw constituency are raising eyebrows that he might be set to stand there in order to keep a seat in the House of Commons.
The leaflet in question is emblazoned with Robert Jenrick’s face and is headered “Help us fix Bassetlaw: Share your views”. The back page contains a survey for residents to fill out asking about a number of political issues and their voting intention. The back page includes four photos, three of which feature Jenrick.
The leaflet was shared on X by the former Labour leader of Bassetlaw Council. In his post he said: “Robert Jenrick has clearly fired the starting gun on his General Election Campaign for Bassetlaw…”
Speculation that Jenrick is set to switch seats has ramped up as a result of the leaflet, particularly among commentators on the right.
GB News US political editor Tom Harwood said: “Interesting, his current seat next door Newark may be demographically too posh for Reform. Polls suggest it’s staying darker blue as the divide on the right entrenches.”
Tory commentator Luke Robert Blake said: “He’s accepted he’s lost his seat in Newark to the
@Conservatives.”
Reform came third in Bassetlaw in 2024 too, but picked up 22 per cent of the vote there, as opposed to 16 per cent in Newark.
Electoral Calculus is currently projecting that on current polling Newark would be a close three-way race between the Tories, Reform and Labour. The polling experts suggest the Tories have a 41 per cent chance of winning, Labour a 34 per cent chance of winning, and Reform a 24 per cent chance of winning.
By contrast, Electoral Calculus has Bassetlaw as being a straight fight between Labour and Reform. According to their projections, if a general election were held now, Labour would hold onto Bassetlaw with 38.9 per cent of the vote, with Reform coming second with 30 per cent.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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