The pollster explained how its new methodology accurately predicted Reform's vote share at the last election
YouGov has responded to Nigel Farage’s claims that the pollster used “bizarre adjustments” to “suppress the true figures” about support for his party.
The Reform leader also claimed YouGov’s polling methods explained why their share price had gone down 81% over the last five years.
In a letter to YouGov, Farage said that in the last ten polls the firm put estimated support for Reform UK at 24.8%, while the average from More in Common and Opinium had been 29.5% and 30.9%.
Reform deputy leader Richard Tice shared a link to a Guido Fawkes article which claimed YouGov was giving Reform a “polling discount”. Tice said: “Are YouGov deliberately playing games?”.
The polling firm rejected the Reform leader’s accusations, explaining that its new methodology takes into account people’s national voting intentions and tactical voting to deliver “more accurate” polls.
YouGov explained that while 29% of voters initially say they would vote Reform if a general election were to take place tomorrow, this figure drops to 26% when they are asked how they would vote in their local constituency.
Their polls are also weighted for turnout and people who say they “don’t know” how they will vote.
The pollster changed its methodology before the 2024 general election, in an attempt to pick up tactical voting.
They said that their own analysis of the new model’s performance at the last election found that it was “significantly more accurate” than its previous system, which simply asked people how they intended to vote without asking about their constituency.
YouGov accurately predicted that Reform would win 15% of the vote at the 2024 election, compared with its previous method that would have had Reform winning 20% of the vote.
While other pollsters such as Opinium and Survation have Reform’s vote share at 30%, in recent weeks the party’s lead has been falling across several polls.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
Left Foot Forward doesn't have the backing of big business or billionaires. We rely on the kind and generous support of ordinary people like you.
You can support hard-hitting journalism that holds the right to account, provides a forum for debate among progressives, and covers the stories the rest of the media ignore. Donate today.