“Given support for independence remains tied, Brexit alone is clearly not a catalyst that can itself prompt a surge in support for separation — but, on the basis of this poll, the advent of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister may well be.”
Scotland remains finely balanced on the question of independence, with a new poll showing the electorate split evenly between Yes and No. However, support for leaving the UK rises notably under a scenario in which Nigel Farage’s Reform party forms the next UK government.
According to the Survation survey, carried out for the public affairs agency True North Advisors, 50 percent of Scots would currently vote for independence, with the same proportion opting to remain in the UK. But when respondents were asked how they would vote if Reform took power at Westminster, support for independence increased to 54 percent, while backing for the Union fell to 46 per cent.
The shift is most pronounced among younger voters, but the poll also suggests softening opposition to independence among some older age groups. While over-65s remain the most strongly unionist cohort, the proportion of this group voting No drops to 68 percent under a Reform government scenario.
Most former No voters would still oppose independence, yet nearly one in five say they would switch to Yes if Farage entered Downing Street. The findings suggest the prospect of a Reform-led government could act as a catalyst for change in Scotland.
The poll also highlights growing pro-European sentiment north of the border. 73 percent of Scots say they would vote to rejoin the European Union if a second referendum were held, compared with just 27 percent who would choose to remain outside.
That represents a substantial increase on the 62 percent who backed Remain in Scotland in the 2016 EU referendum.
Support for rejoining is particularly strong among younger voters, with 80 percent of under-35s saying they would opt to return to the EU.
A breakdown by party affiliation shows overwhelming support among Green voters (89 percent) and SNP voters (88 percent), alongside solid majorities among Labour (73 percent) and Liberal Democrat supporters (70 percent). By contrast, only 43 percent of Conservative voters and 34 percent of Reform voters would favour rejoining.
True North Advisor’s Andrew Liddle said the results point to a clear shift in Scottish public opinion since the Brexit vote.
“Given support for independence remains tied, Brexit alone is clearly not a catalyst that can itself prompt a surge in support for separation — but, on the basis of this poll, the advent of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister may well be.”
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