The poll predicts that Labour would win by TWENTY percentage points with Burnham as their candidate
A new poll suggests Labour could have secured a decisive win in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election if Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham had been allowed to stand.
The first poll of voters ahead of the critical Manchester by-election put Labour on 27%, with Reform slightly ahead at 30%, and the Greens on 17%.
However, the same poll predicts that if Burnham had been allowed to run, Labour’s support would surge to 49%, leaving Reform trailing at just 28%.
The poll also indicates that 51% of those who voted Green in the 2024 General Election would lend their support to Labour if Burnham were the candidate.
Without Burnham as their candidate, that support disappears.
In July 2024, Labour’s Andrew Gwynne won the seat with a 13,000 majority. However, by blocking Burnham from running in the contest on 26 February, Keir Starmer is jeopardising Labour’s hold on the seat.
While it is only one poll and has a small sample size, it mirrors a similar poll Find Out Now carried out in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last March that correctly predicted Reform would beat Labour.
Tyron Surmon, the head of research at Find Out Now, said: “Although this is a small sample poll, with high margin of error, it confirms the picture of a very tight race and Reform having a strong chance of winning.
“Most interestingly, it also shows that the race need not have been close at all – Labour enjoying a commanding lead when Andy Burnham is named as their candidate. Labour may yet regret blocking him standing if, without him, they lose the by-election.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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