‘Attempting to will Brexit into success or ignoring its impact is not a viable strategy for prosperity.’
A report that was commissioned by the London Mayor Sadiq Khan reveals the damning economic effects of Brexit. .
The report, carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, explores the economic impact of the UK leaving the Customs Union and Single Market compared to if the country had stayed in. The net conclusion was that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit had not happened. The outlook outside the capital was similarly bleak.
The research showed there will be three million fewer jobs, a third less investment, and significantly lower imports and exports. London has already lost £30 billion, and the already costly productivity gap between the capital and the rest of the country will widen, the report warns.
Compared to if Britain had stayed in the Customs Union and Single Market, by 2035, Cambridge Econometrics projects that Gross Value Added (GVA) will be 10 percent lower in the UK and 7.5 percent lower in London. The UK will have 3 million fewer jobs, 500,000 of which would have been in London. There will be 32 percent lower investment in Britain, leading to lower output. The country will have 15.8 percent lower imports and 4.6 percent lower exports. London’s productivity will remain approximately the same, but the capital will have lower GVA and employment, the researchers warn.
In a speech at a dinner this week following the publishing of the report, Khan said: “It’s now obvious that Brexit isn’t working.”
“The hard-line version of Brexit we’ve ended up with is dragging our economy down and pushing up the cost of living. Rather than politicians dodging this issue, it’s incumbent on all of us to have an honest discussion about the best way forward.”
The London Mayor argued that attempting to will Brexit into success or ignoring its impact is not a viable strategy for prosperity. He criticised the government for taking a ‘vow of silence’ on Brexit’s damaging effect. Instead, he set out a blueprint for a stronger relationship with Europe to boost the national economy, alleviate the cost-of-living crisis, and increase investment in public services.
Khan is urging political leaders to rebuild the relationship with Europe in 2024, saying that securing a better Brexit would lead to increased trade, higher investment, and stronger growth, benefiting exports and living standards.
“No one wants to see a return to the division and deadlock that dominated our body politic for five long years. However, the inescapable truth is that this unnecessarily hard-line version of Brexit is having a detrimental effect on our capital and country – at a time when we can least afford it.
“We can’t – in all good conscience – pretend that it isn’t hurting our people and harming our businesses. As Mayor of this great city, choosing not to say anything would be a dereliction of duty,” he said.
Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
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