Tories could lose HALF their seats in Scottish Parliament, new poll finds

Another day, another terrible poll for the Tories

Rishi Sunak in Aberdeen

Another day, another terrible poll for the Tories. This time it comes from Scotland.

Redfield and Wilton has new voting intention figures out for the Scottish Parliament and it shows that the Tories could lose almost half their seats at the next election.

The Scottish Parliament is made up of MSPs who are elected either by first past the post in small constituencies or by a proportional system across larger regions. As such, Redfield and Wilton asked the electorate how they would vote on both ballot papers they would receive.

The headline figures on the constituency vote have the SNP on 39%, Labour on 30%, the Tories on 16%, the Lib Dems on 8% and the Greens on 3%. As for the regional vote, Labour are on 30%, the SNP on 25%, the Tories on 15%, the Greens on 14%, the Lib Dems on 9% and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party on 4%.

According to polling aggregator Stats for Lefties, this poll would see the Tories losing almost half their seats if it were repeated at an election. The Tories would end up on just 16 seats, down from 31.

The SNP are the other big loser according to the poll. Stats for Lefties suggest they would win 55 seats, down 9 on their 2021 performance.

As for the other parties, Labour would end up on 35 seats, the Greens on 15 and the Lib Dems on 8. If this were to come to fruition, it would be the first time Labour has emerged as the main opposition in the Scottish Parliament since the 2011 elections. It would also mark the best ever performance by the Scottish Greens by a large margin, and the highest number of Lib Dem MSPs since they entered the coalition government with the Tories in Westminster in 2010.

Redfield and Wilton also polled Scottish voters on who they would back in a general election for Westminster. The firm found that Labour and the SNP are tied for first place, a result which could see the Labour Party make major inroads in Scotland for the first time since the SNP’s massive landslide in 2015.

The next elections to the Scottish Parliament are due to be held in May 2026.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward.

Image credit: Simon Walker / Number 10 – Creative Commons

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