Previously unseen polling shows how difficult the Leave vote is to shift - even in the face of overwhelming economic evidence. We must build a vision for remaining in the EU.
The government’s leaked Brexit impact assessment – obtained by BuzzFeed this week – was music to the ears of many Remainers. It showed that under every scenario, the UK will be worse off because of Brexit.
But while a great scoop, here’s the thing: it doesn’t really change anything.
“It reached the kind of conclusions which would be expected by anyone following the detail of the debate so far. Brexit will impact the UK negatively in every sector, in every part of the country,” notes politics.co.uk‘s Ian Dunt, in a piece entitled ‘The economic case against Brexit is now unarguable’.
Of course, the report is significant in that it comes from government itself – Ministers cannot reasonably claim it to be the work of ‘Remainiacs’ or mutineers (even if they have tried to blame the civil service).
The problem is when this kind of messaging is relied on by Remainers: for too long, we have assumed economic arguments and stats will win people over.
In the referendum campaign, it was the lower GDP projections, or the notional ‘loss of income per person’. It was the higher tariffs and reduced labour power. It was the price of goods and the ‘pound in your pocket’.
It did not work.
The arguments are well-rehearsed, but there’s broad agreement that Project Fear in large part failed because it lacked values, vision, or positive cases for staying in. The Leave campaign spoke of sovereignty and British principles. The question is: have we properly learnt this lesson?
To win next time, Remainers will have to convince a large swathe of former Leave voters to switch sides.
We can now reveal just how difficult to shift the Leave vote is – even in the face of economic calamity. BMG Research polling for Best for Britain and Left Foot Forward shows:
- When asked whether ‘prices going up significantly’ would make people switch from Leave to Remain, just 7% of Leave voters said it would change their view
- We asked if ‘the national economy going into a recession’ would change their view. Just 9% of Leave voters said it would
- Even when asked if they’d change support if their ‘personal finances [got] worse’, again only 7% said they would switch to Remain
- The figure rises to 11% when asked their view if the ‘NHS [was] damaged / worse off as a result’ of Brexit: 11% of Leave voters would back halting Brexit
All of this goes to show that people – rightly or wrongly – view Brexit as an issue of values, not of rigid economic projections.
It’s positive to see Remain groups uniting to limit the worst of Brexit and to give voters a fresh say. But they also must come together with a unifying vision for Remaining in the EU – one which builds on identity, not leaked impact memos.
There does seem to be growing recognition of this fact. Best for Britain’s Eloise Todd told this site:
“This polling shows pretty starkly how we need to make the patriotic case for staying and leading in Europe – a case about values and principles, and less about the past.
“If we hark back to the past we lose. [But] if we make the positive case looking forward we can win.
“The public have the right to change their mind if they don’t like what is happening, and Best for Britain are campaigning every day to make the positive pro-European case.”
While it’s true that the economic argument is broadly settled, the challenge now is winning the much bigger argument – that of vision and values.
Source Note: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,513 UK adults online between 9th & 12th January. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
The question asked was: ‘Thinking about the following scenarios in relation to the UK’s exit from the EU, which scenario(s) would make you switch your support from Leave to Remain?’ with different scenarios.
Josiah Mortimer is Editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter.
9 Responses to “Revealed: Why Remainers can’t win the Brexit debate solely on economics”
Ray Visino
So what will happen now? May can pretend that Brexit is happening while agreeing to staying in but paying more with no say, or the Tories can get rid of her and have a hard Brexit. It is now even obvious to Tories that if this happened it would be a disaster. Traffic jams of trucks would stretch to London, a shooting war would erupt in Ireland and there would be shortages of food and supplies leading to hardship and factory closures. All hell would break loose and the Tories finished for a generation. If they go along with May the country will be saved but the party could split.
greg
One good thing about the EU referendum is that it has made people – especially young people – examine the values of democracy.
I, when young, was very much for what was then a Common Market – I had no idea that it would develop into its present form.
“its present form” has been attained by side-stepping the people at every opportunity, and leaving the EU will be a step in returning democratic power to its rightful owners – The People.
I have never understood how the European Union assumed the power to decide what ‘rights’ I may or may not have; and successive treaties have given power to the EU structures that I have never had any say on.
Wealth without democracy is nothing but a fat bird in a gilded cage – older people know this, and younger people just take for granted all the previous generations have fought for.
patrick newman
It is sad to see people labouring under the illusion that through Brexit we rid ourselves of the EU bureaucracy. Anything other than WTO will involve conditions under which trading deals are set and this will include facing demands and conditions set by countries like USA (America first), Russia and China. When Mrs May went to India to talk trade she was told by Modi that India would like less restriction on immigration – Leavers you are all suckers!
Lawman
This article by a ‘Remainer’ is welcome because it recognises that Leavers are influenced by more than money.
Indeed HM Treasury has published something which indicates the UK will be a weaker economy. I would like to read an analysis of this report by a disinterested economist. For right or wrong, Leavers are distrustful of official publications: in large part due to the disgraceful propaganda by our government before the referendum.
A previous poster has correctly identified a non-money matter which influenced Leavers: the fact that the EU must integrate more with a common Treasury and co-ordinated tax & spend. If the UK remains in the EU, HMG must contribute to this constructively and explain how it will affect us. Whatever happens, it will not be the pre-23/06/2016 status quo ante.