Tories to gain just three
In a further sign of the volatility of the polls ahead of the election next week, new figures produced by Ipsos Mori for STV seem to contradict the data produced by Survey Monkey for the Scottish Sun on Sunday.
According to the Ipsos Mori findings, among those who expressed a voting preference and who said that they are either very likely or certain to vote, 43 per cent said they would support the SNP, with 25 per cent opting for the Conservatives and 25 per cent as well saying they would vote Labour. Five per cent indicated support for the Liberal Democrats with the Scottish Greens and UKIP both on one per cent.
Running the findings through the Scotland Votes calculator suggests that if replicated universally across Scotland, such results would see the SNP take 51 seats, just 5 fewer than they won in 2015. Labour would increase the number of seats they hold in Scotland from one to two, adding to its tally East Renfrewshire, which was lost in 2015 by the then leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Jim Murphy to the SNP.
The Conservatives, under this scenario, would in all likelihood be disappointed with such a result, seeing the total number of MPs they have in Scotland rise from one to just four, far fewer than the predictions made at the start of the campaign. The Lib Dems meanwhile would see Jo Swinson return as MP for East Dunbartonshire, in the processing doubling their Scottish representation in the House of Commons.
The Ipsos Mori polling has also registered a dip in support for Scotland becoming an independent country. Among those who would be likely or certain to vote in a second independence referendum, 47 per cent said they would vote Yes (down three points from March) while 53 per cent would vote No (up three points from March).
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward
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