Pollsters differ on the size of the Tory lead
As voting gets underway, the pollsters’ reputation is on the line once again.
Since Theresa May called the election in late April, all the pollsters have showed a dramatic tightening in the race, although they differ as to the scale of the Tory slump. Here are the final predictions.
Ipsos MORI
The final Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard gives the Tories an eight-point lead over Labour, most likely translating into an increased majority.
The full breakdown:
Con: 44 per cent
Lab: 36 per cent
Lib Dem: 7 per cent
SNP: 5 per cent
UKIP: 4 per cent
Green: 2 per cent
YouGov
The final YouGov poll projects a seven point Tory lead, translating into an increased majority for Theresa May.
YouGov’s Anthony Wells comments:
“At the start of the election campaign our polls showed a huge Conservative lead. Over the last six weeks that has been gradually whittled away, mostly through increases in Labour support. Whatever the differences between polls (and we are not blind to the fact that there is lots of variation between the figures different pollsters are showing), every company has told the same story of a shrinking Tory margin. But as we go into Election Day, the Conservatives still look set to secure a solid lead in votes and an overall majority. The question is how large.”
The full breakdown:
ComRes
The final ComRes poll gives Theresa May a 10-point lead, which would translate into a 74-seat majority — the largest the Conservatives have enjoyed since the Thatcher era.
ComRes chairperson Andrew Hawkins commented:
“The Conservative lead was sealed when Theresa May secured support from around half of UKIP’s 2015 voters, worth almost two million votes, or six percentage points. Despite Mrs May’s ratings taking a hit during the campaign, older voters in particular have stuck with her Party and it appears that the electoral gamble is about to pay off.”
The full breakdown:
Con: 44 per cent (-3)
Lab: 34 per cent (-1)
Lib Dems: 9 per cent (+1)
UKIP: 5 per cent (+1)
SNP: 4 per cent (NC)
Green: 2 per cent (+1)
Other: 1 per cent (NC)
According to ComRes, 48 per cent of people believe Theresa May would make the best prime minister, compared to 39 per cent who say the same about Jeremy Corbyn.
ICM
Throughout the campaign, ICM/Guardian polls have tended to show the strongest Conservative leads. The preliminary results of their final poll put the Tories 12 points ahead of Labour. This would yield a Conservative majority of 96.
ICM director Martin Boon commented:
“So, there we have it. A 12-point victory for the Conservatives is ICM’s preliminary call on our final poll, up from a 7-point victory for David Cameron just two years’ ago, representing a swing to the Conservatives of 2.5% (remembering that both party shares have increased compared to 2015).
This final poll confirms the pattern that ICM has produced over the last fortnight: a fairly healthy and static (aka strong & stable) Conservative share with consolidation of the Labour bump first witnessed after the manifesto publication.”
The full breakdown:
Con: 46 per cent (+1)
Lab: 34 per cent (NC)
Lib Dems: 7 per cent (-1)
UKIP: 5 per cent (NC)
Greens: 2 per cent (-1)
Opinium
The final Opinium poll, published on Tuesday, gives the Conservatives a seven-point lead over Labour. According to its analysis:
“The campaign has damaged the reputation of the Prime Minister, despite a likely Conservative win, with Theresa May’s approval ratings falling from +21 per cent at the start of the campaign to just +5 per cent on average across all voters. While Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has seen his popularity increase to -7 per cent, it doesn’t seem to been enough to challenge the Conservatives.”
The full breakdown:
Panelbase
The final Panelbase poll gives the Tories an eight-point lead.
The full breakdown:
Con: 44 per cent (NC)
Lab: 36 per cent (NC)
Lib Dems: 7 per cent (NC)
UKIP: 5 per cent (NC)
Green: 2 per cent (-1)
Kantar:
At the beginning of the campaign, Kantar projected a 22 per cent Conservative lead. That has now fallen to just 5 per cent.
The full breakdown:
Con: 43 per cent
Lab: 38 per cent
Lib Dems: 7 per cent
UKIP: 4 per cent
SNP: 4 per cent
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3 Responses to “Final polls: Conservatives to win – but by how much?”
DAVE
WHY DO YOU THINK LABOUR ARE SO CONFIDENT DESPITE THE POLLS
Dave Smith
Why have you not included the survation poll?
Madasafish
The polls historically overstate Labour by c 2,4%.. or so
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-1-how-accurate-are-the-opinion-polls/
So I suspect 8% means nearer 10%..
If so, a majority of 100… I have a number of lifetime Labour voting friends who have voted Tory this time for the sake of one person who is unelectable in their view.
If they are shy Tories , the 2.4% could be nearer 4%..
Personally I guess 50 -120 seats.