Labour gains four points as Tories lose five
Talk of a Tory landslide has been tempered over the weekend, as Sunday polling showed a backlash against the Conservative manifesto.
According to the latest YouGov/Times poll, there has been a nine-point swing towards Labour over the last week, as its support increased from 31 per cent to 35 per cent, and Theresa May’s fell from 49 per cent too 44 per cent. This cuts the Conservative lead in half, leaving them with their smallest lead over Labour in 2017.
This would translate into a 46-seat majority, according to Electoral Calculus.
A Survation/Mail poll also shows a major Conservative wobble. It gives May a 12-point lead over Labour, a fall of five points. The Mail on Sunday attributes the fall in support to the controversial changes to social care funding in the Tory manifesto — ‘THE DEMENTIA TAX BACKLASH’ was its splash.
May will be disappointed that the weekend’s polls suggest her attempts to have an honest conversation with the electorate — albeit without providing any costings for her policies — have fallen flat. However, the narrower the lead the more she can be expected to launch personal attacks on Jeremy Corbyn. On Saturday, she wrote on her Facebook page that:
“If I lose just six seats I will lose this election, and Jeremy Corbyn will be sitting down to negotiate with the presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of Europe.”
For Corbyn and Labour, the polling will likely provide a boost for campaigners as they face into the final three weeks of knocking on doors and delivering leaflets. It will also raise hopes in Team Corbyn that he can exceed Ed Miliband’s 2015 voteshare, even if that translates into fewer seats.
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