The reverse seems to be the case
As the SNP begins its annual conference in Aberdeen today, it will do so in the knowledge that there has been no discernible ‘Corbyn bounce’ north of the border.
According to new polling out today, Labour’s standing in Scotland has actually fallen, with 21 per cent of those stating a voting preference supporting Labour in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament. This is down from 22 per cent the last time YouGov conducted such polling in September.
The SNP remain steady on 51 per cent, 30 percentage points ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are on 19 per cent (up one point), the Lib Dems are on 5 per cent (up from 4 per cent in September). Other parties stand on 4 per cent.
Asked how they would vote on the regional list section of next year’s elections to Holyrood, 45 per cent said the SNP, 20 per cent said Labour and 19 per cent said the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are on 5 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.
With Nicola Sturgeon now determined not to push for a second independence referendum imminently, excluding those who did not know or would not say, 48 per cent of those polled supported independence compared to 52 per cent who opposed it.
Today’s results should make Labour HQ sit up and pay attention. The expectation had been that Jeremy Corbyn would somehow revive Labour’s fortunes, yet the reverse seems to be the case, with this poll matching the findings of the data published by TNS last week.
In a difficult assessment for Labour, editor-in-chief of YouGov Freddie Sayers notes:
“The reality is that the appeal of the SNP in Scotland is much broader than simply anti-austerity. It is a nationalist party, currently buoyed by an atmosphere of successful rebellion against the UK establishment.
“In the eyes of Scottish voters, Mr Corbyn is still a remote Westminster figure, at the head of a party that has lost its covenant with Scottish voters. Today’s figures reveal the extent of the challenge ahead of him if he hopes to get a message through that will make a difference north of the border. Whatever that message is, it hasn’t been heard yet.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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28 Responses to “Second poll shows no Corbyn bounce in Scotland”
Faerieson
I do take your point. In England there were many who felt that Labour had betrayed Scottish voters. It really stung, when Cameron almost immediately stuck in the knife, and we thought, “Labour aligned with these buggers!” Yes, it did hurt! But, don’t think that all English voters are quite so two-faced. There were even some of us who still hope for a very different kind of genuinely United Kingdom, much as there are disillusioned pro-Europeans who hate to see Euro-MPs preparing to sell us all down the river to TTIP and ISDS. The parties with the best interests of the electorate at heart are likely to be those who do not attempt to score cheap points against potential allies.
Anti-austerity is a goal worth fighting for and alliances will make this easier. If we really think that either Labour or the SNP would do better to fight this in blinkered isolation then we are likely to find ourselves sorely misguided. What currently shackles Labour is the rump of Tory-lites, as I believe you term them. But what may well turn out to shackle the SNP could be the refusal to recognise that not all English voters are Tories or even Tory-lites.
Nick
The SNP are the same as labour as far as Scotland is
concerned so there would be no need to vote labour
It is this lack of distinction between the political parties
in the first place that have enabled labour to get back to their true roots
Cole
Why on earth would anyone vote for the idiot Corbyn if Sturgeon was the alternative?
arthurfaeleith
What makes you think the SNP doesn’t recognise that not all English voters are Tories? They’re outnumbered by Labour MPs for English constituencies in the House of Commons, when the Labour MPs bother to turn up.
Richard MacKinnon
Nick, I don’t think you really understand Scottish politics. Labour in Scotland were useless. At local level they were corrupt (note the past tense). At national level Labour gave us Brown, Curran, Murphy. Need I say more. The competent ones, and I struggle here, Alexander, Darling, John Smith, couldn’t get out of Scotland quick enough.
On the other hand the SNP are seen to be fighting for Scotland. Even unionists vote for them.