Second poll shows no Corbyn bounce in Scotland

The reverse seems to be the case


As the SNP begins its annual conference in Aberdeen today, it will do so in the knowledge that there has been no discernible ‘Corbyn bounce’ north of the border.

According to new polling out today, Labour’s standing in Scotland has actually fallen, with 21 per cent of those stating a voting preference supporting Labour in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament. This is down from 22 per cent the last time YouGov conducted such polling in September.

The SNP remain steady on 51 per cent, 30 percentage points ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are on 19 per cent (up one point), the Lib Dems are on 5  per cent (up from 4 per cent in September). Other parties stand on 4 per cent.

Asked how they would vote on the regional list section of next year’s elections to Holyrood, 45 per cent said the SNP, 20 per cent said Labour and 19 per cent said the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are on 5 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.

With Nicola Sturgeon now determined not to push for a second independence referendum imminently, excluding those who did not know or would not say, 48 per cent of those polled supported independence compared to 52 per cent who opposed it.

Today’s results should make Labour HQ sit up and pay attention. The expectation had been that Jeremy Corbyn would somehow revive Labour’s fortunes, yet the reverse seems to be the case, with this poll matching the findings of the data published by TNS last week.

In a difficult assessment for Labour, editor-in-chief of YouGov Freddie Sayers notes:

“The reality is that the appeal of the SNP in Scotland is much broader than simply anti-austerity. It is a nationalist party, currently buoyed by an atmosphere of successful rebellion against the UK establishment.

“In the eyes of Scottish voters, Mr Corbyn is still a remote Westminster figure, at the head of a party that has lost its covenant with Scottish voters. Today’s figures reveal the extent of the challenge ahead of him if he hopes to get a message through that will make a difference north of the border. Whatever that message is, it hasn’t been heard yet.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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28 Responses to “Second poll shows no Corbyn bounce in Scotland”

  1. Bill Cruickshank

    Not sure if Ed lives in Scotland but there is no prospect of a Labour revival in Scotland. In all my 40+ years of being an SNP activist I have never know such hatred for the Labour Party. If I had a Fiver for every time I have heard ‘Labour slept with the Tories during the #Indyref’ I would be a millionaire.

  2. RB2

    Anyone surprised by this is an idiot. Voters who went to snp stay there, because their decision had nothing to do with Labour being insufficiently left wing. Some additional Labour voters leave, because they don’t think much of Corbyn, just as English voters don’t. All very predictable.

  3. Faerieson

    Is this really the case, or is the issue perhaps more complex than it is being presented? During the recent election Scottish voters appeared to have abandoned the other parties in droves, so maybe they’re still riding high on having established a more determined and separate identity. The SNP are still very buoyant! Maybe Scottish voters can see that Labour still has its share of soft Tory characters, who appear to favour current austerity over any real alternative. If one follows what is happening in the UK, Europe, and even Transatlantically, it is easy to get the impression that there is a bigger and more worrying trend afoot. Left Foot Forward itself has hardly been true to its stated aims, over the election of Mr Corbyn.

    Recognise the growing and ongoing neo-liberal coup, recognise where it is best rejected, recognise those who still covertly support its thrust, and then it is possible to begin to see the immense scale of the problem. And the problem is not really Mr Corbyn, is it LFF?

  4. jj

    How come we can comment on this article, but the LFF article on ethnic inequalities in the jobs market has closed its comments section?!

  5. Richard MacKinnon

    Labour are in their death throes in Scotland. Next years Scottish parliament elections will be the final nail in the coffin and then the following years council elections will be the burial. Accept it. Scotland no longer belongs to Labour.
    The SNP lost the referendum and now its pay back time. Labour was on the wrong side. They pay for their treachery. And understand this, that is how Labour are seen. They aligned with the Torys rather than stick up for Scotland. Instructed by London Labour to stick the knife in to their fellow countrymen.
    Even No voters want to kick Labour. Why? because Scots are now politically mature. Scots can see right through Labours pseudo norff London intellectuals and we recognise a fake when we see one. Its the best show in town. All this hand wringing by Jeremy over how to address the Saxe Coburgs Should he or shouldn’t he doff the cap? FFS is it any wonder we’re laughing.
    Corbyn and Labour are never going to see a bounce in Scotland again. Tthere is a school of thought that argues that there must be a bounce if a tall enough building can be found.

  6. Faerieson

    I do take your point. In England there were many who felt that Labour had betrayed Scottish voters. It really stung, when Cameron almost immediately stuck in the knife, and we thought, “Labour aligned with these buggers!” Yes, it did hurt! But, don’t think that all English voters are quite so two-faced. There were even some of us who still hope for a very different kind of genuinely United Kingdom, much as there are disillusioned pro-Europeans who hate to see Euro-MPs preparing to sell us all down the river to TTIP and ISDS. The parties with the best interests of the electorate at heart are likely to be those who do not attempt to score cheap points against potential allies.

    Anti-austerity is a goal worth fighting for and alliances will make this easier. If we really think that either Labour or the SNP would do better to fight this in blinkered isolation then we are likely to find ourselves sorely misguided. What currently shackles Labour is the rump of Tory-lites, as I believe you term them. But what may well turn out to shackle the SNP could be the refusal to recognise that not all English voters are Tories or even Tory-lites.

  7. Nick

    The SNP are the same as labour as far as Scotland is
    concerned so there would be no need to vote labour

    It is this lack of distinction between the political parties
    in the first place that have enabled labour to get back to their true roots

  8. Cole

    Why on earth would anyone vote for the idiot Corbyn if Sturgeon was the alternative?

  9. arthurfaeleith

    What makes you think the SNP doesn’t recognise that not all English voters are Tories? They’re outnumbered by Labour MPs for English constituencies in the House of Commons, when the Labour MPs bother to turn up.

  10. Richard MacKinnon

    Nick, I don’t think you really understand Scottish politics. Labour in Scotland were useless. At local level they were corrupt (note the past tense). At national level Labour gave us Brown, Curran, Murphy. Need I say more. The competent ones, and I struggle here, Alexander, Darling, John Smith, couldn’t get out of Scotland quick enough.
    On the other hand the SNP are seen to be fighting for Scotland. Even unionists vote for them.

  11. Faerieson

    I can’t defend Labour as they currently stand, as a rump of New Labour. I merely like to hope that there are moves afoot to right some of their recent and immense wrongs!

  12. RB2

    well I agree with that. but then I don’t understand why anyone would vote for Corbyn at all under any circumstances.

  13. Dave Armstrong

    So, sticking up for Scotland means voting SNP or Yes in the referendum – that’s an insult to the majority of Scots who didn’t do either. More cybernat arrogance.

  14. scotspete

    the fate of Scotland , ….is now in gods hands , not the SNP ?….. watch this space


    A party political broadcast on behalf of the Scottish Nat si Party Mr MacKinnon. You could not slip a piece of A4 paper between the Tories and Nat sis. You can only fool the people some of the time.

  16. Nick

    Richard Anti-austerity is the key and although both political parties are against austerity that’s not good enough as your not in power

    my reference is that it’s best Scotland stick with the SNP for no other reason then Nicola Sturgeon is best placed to serve Scotland interest

    Jeremy Corbyn likewise for the rest of the uk

    The main aim between the two of them is to get rid of the conservatives as bringing doctors into disrepute with government will upset there core voter

    you have to remember conservatives are just like the other conservative leaders worldwide and that’s only interested in class and that you were born in certain parts of the world

    taking home someone for example to marry and you’ve not got the right job or come from the right background and your in big trouble and the same applies in the uk and always has done

    There has never been a time when the people should have voted conservative as it is the evil curse of all mankind across the world from exploitation ‘segregation corruption slavery
    Autocracy and it’s that evil that the SNP and labour will need to conquer nothing else

  17. mightymark

    Have I got this right – not only is the SNP still well ahead of Labour – OK pretty much expected – but Labour are now within only one or two points of the Tories?

  18. mightymark

    Mrs Sturgeon and Mr Salmond seem to treat the Saxe Coburgs very nicely whenever I’ve seen them together!

  19. iain mackie

    Scots have a memory shocker.

  20. arthurfaeleith

    Once again, I have to ask – what has your sister got to do with this?

    For a fleeting moment, I thought perhaps this was one of those embarassingly juvenile ‘Combat 18’ type of things: you know, when someone does something that they think is awfully clever, but everybody else feels embarassed about? But no, surely someone posting under their own name couldn’t be so cringingly, toe curlingly, crass? There’s a guy over at the Scot goes Pop website who does this too. Awkward for everyone.

    So – what has this to do with your sister?

  21. Faerieson

    Maybe, if ‘Cameron’ was the alternative?

  22. Richard MacKinnon

    That is exactly how the SNP are perceived in Scotland, as The Party of Scotland. I could not have put it better myself. Conversely unionist parties are seen as anti Scottish especially Labour. It is hard to work out how this has happened because as you point out the majority of Scots voted No last year, but that is the reality. Most commentators reckon it is due to the formation of the unionist alliance ‘Better Together’, that Labour’s role in the referendum is now historically characterised as doing the Tories dirty work for them. I don’t really care why, I’m just loving it. I can’t tell you the pleasure I got from watching all those Scottish Labour MPs lose their jobs. Especially the likes of Jim Murphy. Labour thought he was a ‘big hitter’ sent up here to sort out Nicola and the nationalists. Now that was arrogant.

  23. Richard MacKinnon

    What’s up James, can you not type the word Nazi? You obviously can think it. Its in your mind that the SNP are comparable to Nazis. So come on James, be big enough to say what you think.

  24. Richard MacKinnon

    Don’t be fooled Alex and Nicola are republicans. Its a tactical thing, its about trying to win support for something you believe in but what other people aren’t persuaded by, but might be in the future. Politicians do it all the time. Its a trick Labour politicians seem hopelessly slow to learn.

  25. Dave Armstrong

    Richard, how will you feel when the SNP could be sharing a platform with Cameron and Osborne in the coming EU referendum? Where would your anti-austerity be then?
    Also, I don’t think Murphy has anything on Salmond when it comes to the arrogance stakes.

  26. Richard MacKinnon

    Dave, Let me reassure you, the SNP will never share a platform with the Tories. Rocks will melt in the sun before that happens. On your other point about arrogance; you can afford to be arrogant if you are a winner. Its not a nice trait but some politicos cant help themselves. If however you are arrogant and end up a loser like Jim Murphy then you look foolish and people will laugh at you. Murphy was full of himself when he took over as Labours Scottish leader. He was going to sort out the SNP. Labour we were told they had a leader in Jim that was a hard hitter and for the first time in Scotland the SNP were on the run. But within 6 months of taking on the job he lost his Westminster seat. He was going to become an MSP at next years Holyrood elections but he is now so toxic he has no chance of standing in next years Scottish elections. Even within the remnants of Scottish Labour he is a joke figure. He might have a nice pension but because he has never done any other kind of job apart from politics he now finds himself in the position of being uniquely unqualified to do anything.

  27. LisaR

    I was many years Labour and a unionist, taking my head out of sand and reading many facts along with the behaviour of Scottish Labour during the campaign only had me look closely at SNP, Scottish and HQ Labour have always conditioned us to believe SNP are the enemy of Scotland, maybe in the early days of SNP decades ago it may have been seen that way for us leftwing socialists but even when it was clear that SNP were more socialist and having proved themselves to protect our interests, grow our economy and create jobs, even when Westminster were slashing our block grant year in year out. Scottish Labour and Scottish Labour MPs stopped doing anything for Scotland, they relied on just conditioning us that SNP were back and they were good, our fault for never looking further than what they instilled in us and also their newpaper Daily Record that would lie and distort facts about SNP. Once we seen the true worth of SNP and probably the cleanest party around, after all for about 4 years the BetterTogether camp sniffed around them looking for dirt and never came up with anything. Even now with Michelle Thomson, she isn’t even being investigated yet if at all and she has stepped down for now as SNP MP till she clears her name of being wrongly accused. My ex MP Gordon Brown conned his fellow Scots,he should have known better that Tories don’t keep promises so he has no respect from majority of ex Labour voters and for many of us as much hated as Tony Blair. I was glad though that Jeremy Corbyn was being supported by many awake English folk, that they too like us Scots had taken heads out of sand and were standing up for democracy. I’m very disgusted in many of the rightwing MPs in the party who just don’t seem to get it, the more they attack and try and demean Jeremy, the more the people will stand by him and if they did succeed in a coup then they must be really stupid to think the people of the south would still stand by the Labour party. Its good to see Momentum movement on the go because that is what won us the part of our choice and as seen in the SNP Conference, delegates will pass resolutions they believe is right but in the likes of the land reform bill, the delegates voted against the bill and sent the party to do more for land reform, that is our democracy speaking and I see it will happen in the south too. Whatever the outcome, I hope Jeremy will not allow the rightwing MPs to change him from the very principles he stood by like being anti war, anti Trident, anti Fracking etc. If he does change then he does not deserve all the people’s support. We are opposition of the Tories, these Labour MPs that want to spite SNP by abstaining on bills they are for against to get at SNP,only allow Tories put through bills that are detrimental to the people and anger Scots more against Labour’s childish behaviour. We can be a strong opposition so I think its time these MPs grow up and stand up against Tories and stop seeing SNP more as the enemy than the Tories.

  28. Derick Tulloch

    That is my experience also. People in the South have no idea how much Labour is hated in Scotland. Phoning up pensioners last year to tell them lies that they would lose their pensions if there was a Yes vote is simply unforgivable.

    I could see them falling below the Tories next May. And I say this as a former member of the Labour Party. The slight increase in Tory polling is a straight shift of the right wing unionist end of the Labour vote directly to the Tories in response to Jeremy’s election.

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