Labour researchers rubbish YouGov claim that Jeremy Corbyn is set to win the leadership contest
Last night’s YouGov poll put Jeremy Corbyn in the lead in the race for Labour leader. It drew on a survey of Labour members, affiliated union members, and £3 registered supporters.
To add to the polling mix, the following represents data from a survey of 294 Labour councillors in key marginal seats carried out between Thursday 16 July and Monday 20 July 2015 by Labour History Research Unit, Anglia Ruskin University lecturer Richard Carr.
The previous June LHRU polling indicated below can be found here. Plugging in only these councillor results, the leadership and deputy leadership contests would proceed as follows:
Leadership contest
Round One – Liz Kendall is eliminated with 13.95 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage | % Change in First Preferences from June 2015 LHRU polling |
| Andy BURNHAM | 91 | 30.95% | -4.75 |
| Yvette COOPER | 88 | 29.93% | -0.17 |
| Jeremy CORBYN | 74 | 25.17% | 6.27 |
| Liz KENDALL | 41 | 13.95% | -1.35 |
| TOTAL | 294 |
Round Two – Jeremy Corbyn is eliminated with 25.77 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Andy BURNHAM | 102 | 35.05% |
| Yvette COOPER | 114 | 39.18% |
| Jeremy CORBYN | 75 | 25.77% |
| TOTAL | 291 |
Round Three – Yvette Cooper becomes Labour Leader with 52.1 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Andy BURNHAM | 137 | 47.90% |
| Yvette COOPER | 149 | 52.10% |
| TOTAL | 286 |
Deputy leadership contest
Round One – Ben Bradshaw is eliminated with 9.59 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage | % Change from June 2015 LHRU polling |
| Ben BRADSHAW | 28 | 9.59% | -3.09 |
| Stella CREASY | 45 | 15.41% | 2.69 |
| Angela EAGLE | 33 | 11.30% | 3.8 |
| Caroline FLINT | 63 | 21.58% | -5.52 |
| Tom WATSON | 123 | 42.12% | 1.42 |
| TOTAL | 292 |
Round Two – Angela Eagle is eliminated with 12.89 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Stella CREASY | 49 | 17.07% |
| Angela EAGLE | 37 | 12.89% |
| Caroline FLINT | 72 | 25.09% |
| Tom WATSON | 129 | 44.95% |
| TOTAL | 287 |
Round Three – Stella Creasy is eliminated with 20.91 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Stella CREASY | 60 | 20.91% |
| Caroline FLINT | 84 | 29.27% |
| Tom WATSON | 143 | 49.83% |
| TOTAL | 287 |
Round Four – Tom Watson becomes Labour Deputy Leader with 61.62 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Caroline FLINT | 104 | 38.38% |
| Tom WATSON | 167 | 61.62% |
| TOTAL | 271 |
Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter
24 Responses to “New survey of Labour councillors puts Yvette Cooper in the lead”
David Lindsay
The usual suspects on Twitter want Jeremy Corbyn to drop out because, “He has made his point.” Well, Liz Kendall has failed to make her point. It is she, if anyone, who ought to drop out.
I hear from someone who was at yesterday’s meeting of the Labour National Executive Committee that the most common age of new party members is 18. They were born in the year that Tony Blair became Prime Minister, and they cannot have had any meaningful political consciousness before David Cameron and George Osborne entered Downing Street. Who are the dinosaurs now?
It was a wonder to behold the live, televised nervous breakdown of John McTernan, Allegra Stratton and whoever was presenting Newsnight (it is now hard to tell, and impossible to care). In all fairness, that same programme included a miraculous report on how Corbyn and the newspaper for which he writes had been right all along about Ukraine. Not those words, but very much that story.
If Corbyn did become the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, then might the paper that carried his weekly column, and the Parliamentary Correspondent of which is a member not merely of the Press Gallery but even of the very Lobby, finally hope to be less than entirely ignored by, for example, newspaper previews on late night news programmes?
Its unique coverage of trade union campaigns, of the peace movement and of otherwise neglected parts of the world, as well as of aspects of British history, might then intrude on the consciousness of something approaching the mainstream. Dare to dream.
In what many of us strongly suspect to have been a radio edit, 15 certificate version of his words, Max Shanly has indicated that, under Corbyn, a number of Labour Party staffers would be given their cards. As soon as Tom Watson is Deputy Leader, at least one of them will in any case have all the time in the world in which to polish his MBE.
Still hoping against hope that Andy Burnham will pull something out, I leave you with the thought of certain apparatchiki, who have never worked outside politics, being forced to hawk their thin CVs and their unattractive personalities door to door as the nights drew in and the temperature dropped. I for one would have a very, very, very Merry Christmas this year. And next year. And the year after that.
DblEntry
“the following represents data from a survey of 294 Labour councillors in key marginal seats”
…i.e. grown-ups rather than the party membership especially the post 2010 upstarts. Hardly representative.
Catherine Rowen
Not exclusive. I saw this from another post. If only the Labour Councillors were to vote then Yvette Cooper is guaranteed success. But it’s not only Labour Councillors who WILL be voting, is it?
Iain Fletcher
“survey of 294 Labour councillors in key marginal seats”
Need I say more? For a website that talks about evidence based policy, that’s pretty shabby.
Iain Fletcher
Is it possible for the right of the party to make a comment about why they should lead without resorting to ad hominem attacks?
And yet the left are supposed to be the childish ones?