As a minority government, Labour would need to reach out to the SNP on a vote-by-vote basis
Ed Miliband will today make an impassioned plea to those traditionally Labour voters in Scotland who polls suggest are preparing to vote SNP next week.
Calling on such voters not to ‘gamble with the SNP’, he will argue that change can only be guaranteed with a Labour government.
Miliband will make the speech at a rally in Glasgow later today as the culmination of a three nation tour of England, Wales and Scotland.
Calling on traditional Labour voters to remember that ‘throughout history, it is Labour values that have changed Scotland’, he will say:
“Nationalism never built a school. It never lifted people out of poverty. It never created a welfare state that healed the sick and protected our most vulnerable.
“It is Labour values, Labour ideas and the determination of people across Scotland that have built this country to what it is today.”
He will also appeal to traditionally Labour voters not to abandon the party that their ancestors staunchly supported in the past. He will say:
“Imagine all the people you know who have built Labour in Scotland.
“Your grandparents who fought for their rights in the shipyards and mines across this country. Your mums and dads, many of whom delivered leaflets for Labour or knocked on doors.”
Evoking the memory of Labour’s great leaders from Scotland, he will continue:
“From Kier Hardie to Jennie Lee. John Smith to Donald Dewar. What would they want today?
“We could be on the verge of electing a Labour government. They would want to be part of it. They would want to be part of building the better future. To be part of booking the removal vans that will roll up outside Downing Street next Friday.
“So let’s come together and get the Labour Government that Scotland needs to kick the Tories out on Thursday.”
Miliband’s plea with voters in Scotland will come following his appearance on Question Time last night, when he said he would under no circumstances do a deal with the SNP:
“If it meant that we weren’t going to be in government not doing a coalition, not doing a deal, then so be it.
“I’m not going to sacrifice the future of our country, the unity of our country, I’m not going to give in to SNP demands around Trident, around the deficit or anything like that.”
Such a statement raises the stakes still further in the battle for Scotland, highlighting for all to see the game of brinkmanship now engulfing the SNP and Labour.
In the red corner is Labour, arguing that a vote for anything other than Labour north of the border will simply open the door to Conservative rule.
Then there’s Nicola Sturgeon who, on BBC Scotland’s election programme last night, accused Ed Miliband of preferring a Conservative government over a deal with the SNP.
However clear Miliband’s pronouncements may have seemed, the reality is that he has failed to accept what everyone knows. Even as a minority government, faced with a Conservative and Lib Dem opposition unlikely to want to make life easy for Labour, he will need to reach out to SNP MPs on a vote by vote basis.
In other words, rather than a grand deal immediately following the election, Labour will need to negotiate deals day in and day out, with backbenchers being worn down by late night votes and all sorts of procedural obscurities that the opposition would use to make life difficult.
And let’s not forget, having run as a minority government between 2007 and 2011, the SNP know all too well how to exert influence over such governments. Whatever Labour might say, as Alex Salmond rightly argued on the Andrew Marr programme last month:
“If you hold the balance, you hold the power.”
How this will all play out next week is impossible to tell. What we do know however, is that all polls out this week looking at the state of play in Scotland have the SNP on 5 per cent or more of the vote. Meanwhile Nicola Sturgeon remains head and shoulders above all other political leaders as the person Scots most trust to stand up for and protect the Scottish national interest.
In a bleak assessment of Labour’s prospects, the Herald’s editorial today concludes:
“It is getting late to turn the tide now, but Labour won 15 constituency seats at the last Scottish parliament election so anything approaching that would be a blessed relief from the near-wipe-out which as of now seems more likely.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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31 Responses to “Miliband will regret his words on the SNP”
Jim Bennett
Peem, I can state categorically that the SNP would support a Labour Queen’s Speech. However, because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, they could defeat every single element of that speech when there was a vote on each constituent element in the House and not topple the government. This means that the SNP (and any other minority party) would have significant leverage on a vote by vote basis.
It’s the reality of minority government that deals have to be done. One simple example of this would be that, on current opinion polls, if the SNP simply sat on their hands, virtually all of Labour’s programme would be defeated. The SNP could easily say that they didn’t oppose Labour but Labour didn’t go far enough so they couldn’t actually vote positively for them.
Minority Government is a delicate balancing exercise where the Governing party requires to talk actively to all other players.
Jim Bennett
I think this is an excellent analysis Ed. Thank you.
Richas
You vastly over estimate the rebel group of Lab MPs but you also miss that a minor defeat is not a big problem. Labour could take some on the chin and condemn Tory and Nat alike.
Meanwhile following such a defeat sometimes Labour would compromise to the right and sometimes to the left on the next vote, so the position of leverage, of control is with Labour.
On your welfare and immigration examples the SNP would be delivering cover. We did not want to do this but the SNP were unreasonable….if we had a majority it would be better. Political cover when we have to reduce the deficit is not a political threat it is an asset, we can blame BOTH the tories and the Nats for th unpalatable.
Much like the SNP blame Westminster foir everything a Lab Minority could blame the SNP and the Tories – GREAT.
Richas
The SNP could defeat only measures where they get Tory support! The more often they do this the better as it exposes them to Scottish voters.
All Westminster’s fault? Well turns out voting SNP gives the tories more power and voting SNP for Westminster sends them in to the lobbies with the tories?
Minority government can be hard, it was last time the SNP brought down a Labour government but remember when they did that in 1979 they lost 9 of 11 seats!
The potential new minority gov let’s Labour play off the Tories and the SNP for both political cover and a majority. Trident, easy. Bedroom Tax, easy.
In the handful of places where you imagine tory and SNP cooperation for completely opposed reasons, fine, the Min Gov picks a side and goes with that, blaming both – sweet 🙂
AlanGiles
Miliband has been badly advised. He has upset the Greens, the SNP and anybody and everybody else who might be able to help him and IF he has the most seats without a majority next Friday he has burnt his bridges.