As the results come in, look out for these five Labour/Tory battleground seats. They could be early indicators of whether we'll see Cameron or Miliband in Number 10
Nuneaton
Due to be announced: 1 am
Nuneaton is expected to be the first Tory-held marginal to be announced. The Tories won by a 2,069 majority in 2010, but Labour currently leads by a small majority in Lord Ashcroft’s polls, meaning this is the kind of seat that Labour needs to be winning if it wants to form a government. If Labour doesn’t win here, it could be an early sign that things aren’t looking good for Ed Miliband.
South Swindon
Due to be announced: 3 am
Lord Ashcroft’s polling finds this seat tied between Labour and Conservative, both on 37 per cent. In 2010 the Conservatives won by a majority of 3,544. The seat has tended to go with the winning party; the Conservatives won it in 1992, Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, always by fairly small majorities. If Cameron loses this seat it could speel doom for the former Etonian.
Hampstead & Kilburn
Due to be announced: 3 am
Retired MP Glenda Jackson beat the Conservatives to this seat by just 42 votes, and the Lib Dems by 399. This makes it one of the only genuine three-way marginals in the country. Prominent Lib Dem candidate Maajid Nawaz is not expected to replicate 2010’s success due to dissatisfaction with the coalition. Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft polling puts Labour on 47 per cent, the Conservatives on 30 per cent and the Lib Dems on 13 per cent. If the Conservatives confound the polls and take the seat it could spell a Labour defeat in a number of similar seats.
Ashfield
Due to be announced: 4 am
Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour seat, but in 2010 the Lib Dems came within a couple of hundred votes in the second largest Labour-Lib Dem swing in the country. Gloria De Piero is defending a Labour majority of just 192 in the Nottinghamshire seat. There is now a significant UKIP threat in the seat; UKIP finished eight points clear of Labour last May on 37 per cent, up from just 1.9 per cent in 2010.
Finchley & Golders Green
Due to be announced: 5 am
This is a symbolic seat that Labour will badly want to win; Margaret Thatcher held it for 33 years. The seat had been Labour for 13 years until 2010, and Lord Ashcroft currently puts Labour two points ahead of the Tories. Labour are expected to take eight seats in the capital, and if this is realised, Thatcher’s seat would be the jewel in the crown as Labour retake London.
Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter
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29 Responses to “Five results to look out for tonight”
Leon Wolfeson
…Don’t smack people around the nose with the bottle in the first place.
As you make it clear you can’t be bother reading other people’s posts.
Gerschwin
I’ll try Leon, I’ll try….mmm…. nothing like quaffing champagne…
Gerschwin
Five results to look out for:
1. Idiot with a stone in a garden.
2. Idiot in a dress up in Scotland.
3. Exit polls.
4. Ed Balls – ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
5. Fabulous DC. Now there’s a result!
Jacko
I’m intrigued, Leon. Are you going to waste another four years of your life on this site, or start getting on with your life? It’s golden opportunity to draw a line under it, get away from your computer, find a girlfriend, improve your career, earn more money, buy a house, and do something with your life. Or is it another 10,000 posts of pointless bickering in the flickering glow of your rented room? Your choice.
Action Verb
Leon,
So where in your view has the left vote gone which would
have supported a labour party closer to its left roots but abandoned it
following the shift to the centre right? It certainly didn’t go to the Lib
Dems, and the limited gains by Greens do not appear to be the reason of Labour’s
collapse. Did the left vote stay at home
and the Tories were better at getting people out on the day? The Lib Dem vote
share was decimated, did they move across to UKIP and tories? Who were these
Lib Dem voters in 2010 who are now veering so much to the right?
I don’t disagree that Labour were pushed way too far on the
right, but the results still don’t make sense to me.