As the results come in, look out for these five Labour/Tory battleground seats. They could be early indicators of whether we'll see Cameron or Miliband in Number 10
Nuneaton
Due to be announced: 1 am
Nuneaton is expected to be the first Tory-held marginal to be announced. The Tories won by a 2,069 majority in 2010, but Labour currently leads by a small majority in Lord Ashcroft’s polls, meaning this is the kind of seat that Labour needs to be winning if it wants to form a government. If Labour doesn’t win here, it could be an early sign that things aren’t looking good for Ed Miliband.
South Swindon
Due to be announced: 3 am
Lord Ashcroft’s polling finds this seat tied between Labour and Conservative, both on 37 per cent. In 2010 the Conservatives won by a majority of 3,544. The seat has tended to go with the winning party; the Conservatives won it in 1992, Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, always by fairly small majorities. If Cameron loses this seat it could speel doom for the former Etonian.
Hampstead & Kilburn
Due to be announced: 3 am
Retired MP Glenda Jackson beat the Conservatives to this seat by just 42 votes, and the Lib Dems by 399. This makes it one of the only genuine three-way marginals in the country. Prominent Lib Dem candidate Maajid Nawaz is not expected to replicate 2010’s success due to dissatisfaction with the coalition. Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft polling puts Labour on 47 per cent, the Conservatives on 30 per cent and the Lib Dems on 13 per cent. If the Conservatives confound the polls and take the seat it could spell a Labour defeat in a number of similar seats.
Ashfield
Due to be announced: 4 am
Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour seat, but in 2010 the Lib Dems came within a couple of hundred votes in the second largest Labour-Lib Dem swing in the country. Gloria De Piero is defending a Labour majority of just 192 in the Nottinghamshire seat. There is now a significant UKIP threat in the seat; UKIP finished eight points clear of Labour last May on 37 per cent, up from just 1.9 per cent in 2010.
Finchley & Golders Green
Due to be announced: 5 am
This is a symbolic seat that Labour will badly want to win; Margaret Thatcher held it for 33 years. The seat had been Labour for 13 years until 2010, and Lord Ashcroft currently puts Labour two points ahead of the Tories. Labour are expected to take eight seats in the capital, and if this is realised, Thatcher’s seat would be the jewel in the crown as Labour retake London.
Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter
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29 Responses to “Five results to look out for tonight”
AlanGiles
I said back in January 2012 just after Miliband’s disastrous World At One interview with Martha Kearney that he couldn’t win. It was obvious he frankly didn’t know anything about industry.
When Jim Murphy became Scotland’s Labour leader, I suggested that Labour had lost Scotland.
I said Ed Balls would not be credible as Chancellor. He has just lost his seat.
I was speaking the truth as I saw it but I was regarded as a “troll”. I have had numerous amounts of abuse from one of LFFs most troublesome lunatics. Dare to speak the truth and you are somehow a Tory. Actually I voted Green: it was gratifying to see at Brighton Pavillion despite Labour’s best efforts, that Caroline Lucas INCREASED her majority for the Greens.
Despite all that, I do feel sorry for Miliband, who has been badly advised – in particular the “Edstone” on Sunday (God knows who put him up to that!). I think the limestone and the drag queen Eddie Izzard did it for Labour. They were both condescending and insulting to ordinary people.
I suppose now we will have the beauty parade of the New Labour cadavers, dug up for another leadership contest.
Leon Wolfeson
Oh sure, that’s another issue though.
Leon Wolfeson
Keep maundering about your views on murdering and scalping me in particular and lots of other people (I really don’t care, you’re all wind and no action), as you lash out at Pale Blue Labour.
In reality, I’m saying “told you so” repeatedly to Labourites, who blew a 10%+ polling lead over the last three years by moving repeatedly right – and losing the votes of the left (outside the tribal Labourite faction). The election, as I said again and again, was Labour’s to lose – and they’ve managed it.
Of course, this election also shows why FPTP blows – Labour actually increased their vote share by significantly more than the Tories….
Leon Wolfeson
Keep chanting from the Tory hymn book.
You are saying what you’re told to say by your Masters, as you scream Jews are lunatics again, and you try to hide your affiliation, nastily smearing the Greens in an attack worthy of Galloway.
As you set up new attacks on Labour politicians, for years more of Conservative Central Office mandated abuse.
Gerschwin
Sorry Leon, too busy popping champagne corks to care. Now, do you suppose it should by the Bolly or the Dom Perignon? Personally I find them both a little on the nose so to speak, so not entirely sure which I will go for. Any thoughts?