Labour’s prospects in Scotland look bleak as SNP continues to dominate

Meanwhile Miliband's satisfaction ratings north of the border lag behind even Cameron's


As the UK government today publishes legislation to implement the further powers promised for Holyrood, new polling has revealed the SNP’s continued dominance in Scotland.

The data, compiled by Ipsos Mori for STV, has found that of those who say that they are certain to vote at the General Election, 52 per cent of Scottish voters say that they will vote SNP, the same figure as that recorded for the party in October.

24 per cent say they would vote for Scottish Labour, up one percentage point, while support for the Scottish Conservatives is up two points to 12 per cent. The Scottish Lib Dems and Greens are both down by two points, currently polling at four per cent.

According to calculations, if this data was replicated universally across Scotland at the next election, the SNP would secure 55 seats. Scottish Labour would be reduced to just four – Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill.

Voters were asked also how satisfied or dissatisfied they were with their political leaders.

Top of the pile comes first minister Nicola Sturgeon, with 69 per cent of respondents satisfied with her performance compared to 20 per cent who are dissatisfied with it.

34 per cent say that they are satisfied with Jim Murphy’s performance as Scottish Labour Leader, compared to 38 per cent who are dissatisfied.

Worryingly for Labour, Ed Miliband’s satisfaction ratings north of the border continue to lag behind those of David Cameron.

27 per cent say they are satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing compared to just 21 per cent who say the same of Ed Miliband.

Asked if Jim Murphy’s election as leader of the party in Scotland would make voters more or less likely to vote Labour at the General Election, 28 per cent said less likely compared to 20 per cent who say more likely.

Commenting on the findings Mark Diffley, director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said:

“This poll reinforces the dominant position of the SNP and the challenges facing Labour as the general election looms ever closer.

“Although support for Labour has marginally increased since October, they will need to make inroads into the SNP’s lead if they are to avoid a disappointing election result. This poll measures current attitudes among Scots rather than predicting the outcome in May and all parties will be closely watching the extent to which opinion changes as the election gets closer.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

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5 Responses to “Labour’s prospects in Scotland look bleak as SNP continues to dominate”

  1. swat

    Ominous. Scotland could become a Labour Free Zone as well as a Tory Free Zone, as far as Westminster goes. Murray has quite a challenge on his hands, and needs all the help he can get.

  2. Ian Brannan

    What so ominous about the SNP’s lead? Labour these days are literally indistinguishable from the Tories for example both back the reneal of Trident, both voted recently in the House of Commons for £30bn of additional cuts, both back the austerity agenda, both back the bedroom tax etc etc

  3. AlanGiles

    This is hardly a surprise. How could anybody have imagined that the bumptious, obnoxious unreconstructed Blairite expenses fiddler that is Murphy would improve Labour’s chances. His arrogance and combative manner come over only too clearly on radio and he always looks as if somebody has broken wind in his face.

  4. AlanGiles

    Rachel Reeves – the Lauren Cooper of politics – “am I bovvered?”

  5. YouShouldRunFaster

    I guess Jim Murphy would like some help too…you’re not Dianne Abbott by any chance?

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