Polling swings back to Yes to independence camp

A YouGov poll for the Times shows a modest but noticeable increase in support for independence.

The volatile state of the polling on Scottish independence has once again come in for sharp focus following a YouGov poll for the Times showing a modest, but noticeable, increase in support for independence.

The polling has found that of the 1072 Scottish people asked, 37 per cent supported independence compared to 52 per cent who opposed it and 10 per cent who did not know how they would vote. This represents an increase of 2 per cent in support for independence since last month and a 1 per cent fall in support for the No campaign over the same period.

When the don’t knows and those who do not intend to vote are taken out of the equation, support for independence rose to 42 per cent whilst those opposed increased to 58 per cent.

Asked how they would vote if proposals for increased powers for a devolved Parliament were on the ballot paper, 36 per cent supported this option compared to 31 per cent who maintained support for independence and 22 per cent who opted to retain the current settlement.

Interestingly, 45 per cent of respondents felt that Scotland would be economically worse off if it broke away from the Union, with 30 per cent saying it would be better off. 10 per cent felt that it would make no difference.

The gap grows bigger still when asked about the likely impact of independence on the personal finances of respondents, with 39 per cent saying it would make them worse, 19 per cent saying it would make them better and 23 per cent concluding that it wouldn’t make a difference.

In assessing the landscape on polling so far, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has concluded that that the Yes to independence camp is, if anything, catching up with the no side, albeit slowly. Writing for the What Scotland Thinks blog, he explains:

“All in all, some ten polls have been published since the currency intervention. With today’s poll, these now include at least one from every company polling regularly during the campaign.

“On average these have put the Yes side on 43 per cent, up two points on the equivalent statistic for all those polls conducted between the beginning of January and the currency intervention. Between them they represent the best sequence of results for the Yes side yet.

“It has long been apparent that the currency intervention had not produced any boost for the No side. It is now beginning to look as though the last six weeks may, if anything, have seen the Yes side catch up a little further.”

Unsurprisingly, both the yes and no camps sought to put their own unique spin on the latest polling for which I’ll let readers guess what they’ve said.

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