Osborne’s borrowing target goes off beam

Tony Burke examines the recent borrowing figures and the government's failure to deliver its promise to control borrowing.

 

Public sector borrowing in the UK grew last month to the largest ever recorded – making it very unlikely the government will be able to meet its self imposed targets set for deficit reduction – and at a time when the government is rolling out an ex-PM’s to spin that the economy may have turned the corner and the green shoots of growth are poking through.

Not so says Lee Hopley, chief economist at the Engineering Employers Federation, who commented at weekend:

“It feels like the mood has shifted down over the last quarter: the dark clouds do appear to be gathering.”

The government borrowing target for 2012-13 is £120 billion, but a number of analysts say this will be overshot by between £10 – £20 billion. Public sector net borrowing was £14.4 billion in August, the same as August 2011, but the current budget deficit was £13.2 billion, up by £0.4 million on August 2011.

The government will have to announce a u-turn in the autumn spending review and concede UK debt will continue to grow during the term of the parliament – up until and beyond the end in 2015. This year’s figures have also been boosted by a £28 billion “windfall” from the Royal Mail’s pension funds.

Without that “windfall” the public debt for this year would be £59 billion, up 21% on the first five months of last year. The government target for the year is to reduce the deficit by 4.6 per cent.

The UK’s total public sector debt rose to £1.039 trillion, 66.1 per cent of the total annual GDP of the UK. This is a rise of £83.7 billion on 12 months ago when total debt was £955.8 billion.

The governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King, has given the green light for the government to miss their own targets on spending when he said he would not “complain” if the government missed its targets because the world economy has grown slowly and the UK has kept pace.

Giving Osborne political cover, Sir Mervyn said:

“If it’s because the world economy is growing more slowly, then it would be acceptable. It would not be acceptable to miss the debt target if there was no excuse for it.”

So that’s all right then?

Austerity is biting – and there is much more to come. The government’s own borrowing targets are way off beam. So how will Osborne deal with it? Probably by more cuts to pay for the mounting costs of economic failure leading to attacks on welfare benefits and lower tax revenues as workers are laid off or forced into low paid employment.

But then we are all in this together. Aren’t we?

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7 Responses to “Osborne’s borrowing target goes off beam”

  1. robertcp

    I agree with most of this article but government debt would have risen whoever was in government for this Parliament. It looks like the deficit will be a bit more in 2012/13 as in 2011/12, but that is probably welcome when the economy is in recession. The worry is that the Coalition will panic and cut welfare, which is as likely to be self-defeating as the too rapid deficit reduction of the last two years. All political parties should accept that it will take two Parliaments to eliminate the deficit.

  2. LB

    Without that “windfall” the public debt for this year would be £59 billion, up 21% on the first five months of last year. The government target for the year is to reduce the deficit by 4.6 per cent.

    ===============

    The debt is up. You’re just deluded that debt = borrowing. No doubt you also follow the Brown mantra that you can pay off a deficit. That statement alone shows how delusional Brown was and is.

    The pension fund liabilities are now off the books. However they are still a debt.

    Total up the off the book fiddles, and you can add another 6,000 bn to the debts.

  3. LB

    They can’t eliminate the deficit.

    The reason is that they don’t admit to all the debts. eg. Pensions. Those debts are back end loaded. Easy payments now, massive payments later.

    So no matter how fast they cut, those debts get bigger even faster. You can’t print, because they are inflation linked debts.

    So that leaves default, in full or in part.

    So where Burke’s analysis is correct, is that people aren’t in it together. Those that are reliant on the state are going to be screwed.

    The mess is due to spending more than you earn. The mess is due to hidding the debts by not reporting them.

    The crooks in it all are politicians.

  4. LB

    Austerity is biting – and there is much more to come.

    ================

    However, you haven’t mentioned that the real reason is government spending is up in real terms. Above inflation.

    You have to ask if there are cuts, why this is the case.

    Employment is up.

    Taxes have been raised. [The solution to everything is obviously more taxes]

    You could tax benefits. I’m waiting for that one.

  5. Newsbot9

    Ah, you’re a politician, thanks for the clarification. There’s nothing hidden except your corporate welfare. No wonder you’re so happy with the depression!

  6. Newsbot9

    As usual, you’re trying to crush the economy by decapitating the value of actual work, Of course you don’t believe that Britain is like any other country, since your Tories can torture the poor here and you’ll cheer.

    And no, your fiddles are bigger than that! Pay up!

  7. Newsbot9

    Uh… Jobseekers IS taxed. So will Universal Benefit, but from the first penny, meaning that homelessness is going to soar.

    Of course your plans are on track, and your glee at killing the poor continues. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! Of course you don’t believe it’s “cutting” to do so, as long as YOUR gravy train rolls on.

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