Public support for Cameron’s EU walkout already unravelling

Brexit & Foreign Policy

While the headline post-EU summit poll findings support the prime minister, there are already signs that the public is wary of what has happened.

 

Backbench Conservative MPs drew attention yesterday to what they saw as broad public support for David Cameron’s actions in Brussels in the early hours of Friday morning. But while the headline findings support the prime minister, there are already signs that the public is wary of what has happened.

A new YouGov poll for The Sun this morning reinforces yesterday’s Times poll on the public’s broad reaction to Britain walking away from the Franco-German treaty revisions. Although a veto was not technically used, by almost three-to-one (58%-21%), voters think Cameron was right when asked ‘Do you think David Cameron was right or wrong to veto the treaty?’.

Yesterday’s Populus poll for The Times (£) found support at 57%-14% while a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday found support at 62%-19%.

But more in depth questions by YouGov (pdf) show that the public do not think that the outcome will be a happy one for Britain.

As the charts below show, just 24 per cent think the outcome will be good for Britain (31 per cent say ‘bad’) while a meagre 15 per cent think the summit will be ‘good for the British economy over the next few years’ while 34 per cent think it will be bad:

EU-summit-good-or-bad-for-British-economy
The latest poll also finds the narrowest support for British withdrawal from the EU in months. Only 43 per cent now want Britain to leave while 36 per cent think Britain should remain a member. As recently as August, 52% said they would vote to leave, while 30% would remain a member.

In a recent IPPR report on ‘Euroscepticism in Britain’ (pdf) I explained the nuances of British public opinion on the European Union with voters deeply hostile to the institution but enthusiastic about closer working on a range of issues including counter-terrorism, climate change, and security policy.

In his commentary on the poll, YouGov President Pete Kellner discusses the long term implications:

What will people think when the dust settles? At the moment, voters are reacting to the dramas of the past week. In a year or two’s time they will be reacting to the consequences of Cameron’s actions.

If Britain’s economy does better than those in the eurozone, and some kind of calm, however awkward, returns to our relations with the rest of the EU, then the prime minister’s stance will have been vindicated, and his party is likely to be rewarded with extra votes and seats at the next election.

If, however, our economy stumbles and enough voters blame at least part of this on Cameron’s veto, then the Tories could well suffer.

Tory backbenchers would be wise to avoid being too triumphalistic about their leaders’ diplomatic moves.

See also:

• What exactly did Cameron get from the EU summit? – Shamik Das, December 13th 2011

• Cameron turns Britain from an outlier into an irrelevance – James Denselow, December 12th 2011

• How Cameron traded influence for isolation – Ben Fox, December 12th 2011

• Look Left – Europe 26-1 Cameron: Britain isolated like never before – Shamik Das, December 9th 2011

• The view from abroad: The day Britain locked itself out – Alex Hern, December 9th 2011

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25 Responses to “Public support for Cameron’s EU walkout already unravelling”

  1. Passing Leftie

    Your interpretation is wrong. The two questions relate to the outcome of the summit – meaning what the Eurozone decided, not what Cameron did. I can’t imagine the there would have been much difference in the answers if Cameron had signed up. Much as I think people misunderstand how fantatisically badly Cameron negotiated, it’s clear that people approve of his negotiation, and approve of the veto. I think this will change, but this article is not supported by the data, which is your entire raison d’etre.

  2. Simple mistakes...

    The polls are asking different questions. Schoolboy error.

  3. Selohesra

    Left are engaging in wishful thinking having found themselves on wrong side of public opinion on this. Result go to the oh so independent Mr Kellner (married to Baroness Ashton – Lab politician) to try and spin a favourable or at least less adverse poll

  4. Deborah Jones

    Beneath the headline findings, public support for Cameron’s EU walkout is already unravelling: http://t.co/Shxtp9LA

  5. Alyn Smith MEP

    Public support for Cameron’s EU walkout already unravelling: http://t.co/LVO0wjaV reports @wdjstraw #EU

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