An exhaustive academic report shows why Labour would benefit from the Alternative Vote. The report argues ""By opposing AV ... the Labour Party is likely to deprive itself of a chance to gain seats"
The principled arguments for a ‘Yes’ vote in May’s referendum on the Alternative Vote have been well documented by Next Left among others. But the partisan case for Labour to campaign for a ‘Yes’ vote has now become clear in an exhaustive academic report (pdf) by the “world’s leading expert on referendums“, Dr Matt Qvortrup of Cranfield University.
“In every election since 1997, the Labour Party would have gained more seats under AV than under First-Past-the-Post. There is only one academic study that gives Labour fewer seats than actually won under First-Past-the-Post, and this was in an unrepresentative year.”
Reiterating research published in The Guardian, the academic outlines that Labour would have gained four more seats in the 2010 election under AV while the Conservatives would have won 26 fewer seats.
Dr Qvortrup rebuts a recent article by Strathclyde University’s John Curtice which suggested that the Tories could benefit from the introduction of AV by outlining that the argument was “not based on empirical evidence” but on “assumptions” and “conjecture”. The article was:
“a journalistic comment, not a solid piece of political science … If we rely on the figures from surveys as provided by opinion polls the result is clear; Labour would gain from the introduction of AV.”
Referring to claims that the 2008 Mayoral election showed that Conservatives had an advantage, Dr Qvortrup writes:
“The myth that Boris Johnson’s victory in the 2008 suggests that the Tories have an advantage under AV is equally flawed. In fact, Boris Johnson polled fewer Second Preference votes than Ken Livingstone. Had had Ken Livingstone only won another 0.04 percent of the Second Preferences he would have beaten Boris Johnson although the Labour Candidate received almost 150.000 fewer first preference votes than his Conservative challenger.”
Dr Qvortrup concludes that:
“By opposing the Alternative Vote – or by campaigning half-heartedly for it – the Labour Party is likely to deprive itself of a chance to gain seats, and even of unseating the Government in the next General Election …
“AV is Labour’s best chance of ousting the Conservative-led government and for appealing to disgruntled Liberal Democrat voters who regret that their parties opted for an alliance with David Cameron rather than a partnership with the Labour Party.”
81 Responses to “Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV”
Leonard Boe
RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/gRBGAo #YES2AV
patricia roche
I would not vote for anything that the lib dem tories have put forward. I will also be actively saying to everyone just say no. The reasons are that the lib dems are now tories and the tory leaning electorate will vote for them, as will the right wing lib dems. I do not want a coalition forming like the one that exists now, which will decimate the entire lives of the poor, the disabled, women and children and will also privatise the health service, which is happening now while we speak of av. I do not really care if this is an academically sound position or not. I only know that I am an angry voter who supports a uk which is fair and just and I hate to see that go down the plughole due to the unprincipled shower who are making decisions without any compassion for the consequences.
John Woods
I found it hard to convince fellow members in my local constituency party. When I complained during a discussion of the LABOUR Leadership election that Ed Balls did not exercise his second choice, several members said that they had not done so either. In my opinion this is a no brainer. The further right the Tories and the LibDems go the more the use of second and third choices will benefit Labour. This is the main reason the Tories are totally opposed.
Kris
RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av
Ben Cadwallader
@amymb here's part of the reason why as a Labour supporter you should be #yes2av – (on LeftFootForward) http://bit.ly/gqgVGy