Eric Pickles’ cuts target Britain’s poorest areas

The Government claims that “We’re all in this together”. But even with Eric Pickles’ 'transition grant' into account, the poorest areas will do worse out of this settlement.

The Government is fond of claiming that “We’re all in this together”. But even taking Eric Pickles’ ‘transition grant‘ into account, it is abundantly clear that the poorest areas will do worse out of this settlement.

Left Foot Forward has carried out a simple econometric analysis of the local government cuts and compared the post-transition grant “change in estimated ‘revenue spending power’ 2011-12” with the 2007 index of multiple deprivation – the last analysis available. The figures speak for themselves.

In London, there is a strong correlation between the two variables. Poor areas like Hackney (-8.9%), Newham (-8.9%), Tower Hamlets (-8.9%), and Islington (-8.8%) find themselves with the deepest cuts while richer areas like Richmond (-0.61%), Havering (-1.71%), and Harrow (-1.9%) are best off.

The x-axis covers the index of multiple deprivation (50 is the most deprived area) while the y-axis covers the percentage fall in ‘revenue spending power’.

A similar pattern takes place in metropolitan areas. Here Manchester, Liverpool, South Tyneside, and Knowsley get take the maximum hit of -8.9% while less deprived areas like Solihull (-3.49%), Dudley, (-3.39%), and Trafford (-3.79%) do far better.

UPDATE 18.41:

It has been pointed out to me that the local government figures include NHS support for social care. If this were excluded the picture would be even more stark.

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180 Responses to “Eric Pickles’ cuts target Britain’s poorest areas”

  1. BenM

    Feeling skewered 13eastie?

  2. Mark Martin

    "@johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward"

  3. David Skinner

    Once again spending cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dSjufE

  4. Chris Plowman

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  5. Damien Briggs

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  6. David

    @leftfootfwd shows poorest areas worst hit by CLG cuts: http://j.mp/fPGGEh – @lgcplus stats w/out NHS soc care £s shows how dire 4 Teesside

  7. Polly Dickerson

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  8. Phil Whittaker

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  9. Kit Bailey

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  10. Gareth Douce

    RT @SamTarry: RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfo …

  11. John Davey

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftf …

  12. anna twigganna

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  13. Charlie Phillips

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftf …

  14. martin tennant

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  15. Odhran Mc Alinden

    RT @cllrstevereed: RT @johannhari101: The Tory LibDem cuts announced today hit poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent …

  16. Stephen Crowe

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  17. Alex Jansen Birch

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  18. TraceyStreet

    RT @RedLadderTheatr: RT @johannhari101 The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @ …

  19. Sarah Chalmers

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  20. Juan Voet

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftf …

  21. Carl Baker

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  22. Tzcttwit

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  23. Christopher Roussel

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  24. LiberalLabour

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  25. Darren Johnson

    Thanks @leftfootforward for analysis of how Government cuts are hitting poorest areas hardest http://bit.ly/fm73iV #ukcuts #unison

  26. David

    Via @leftfootfwd poor areas worst hit by #localgov cuts http://j.mp/fPGGEh – full cuts(-NHS s/care £s) truly dire 4 Teesside @lgcplus shows

  27. Simon Fletcher

    RT @leftfootfwd: Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/gjxG3I

  28. Roomyverse

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  29. Adam Harrison

    RT @LeftFootFwd: Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/gjxG3I

  30. Michelle Graham

    RT @kenanmalik: 'We're all in it together'. Yeah right: http://bit.ly/fPGGEh (via @leftfootfwd)

  31. eduardosuarez

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  32. Joe Hesketh

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  33. Plymouth Greens

    RT @DarrenJohnsonAM: Thanks @leftfootforward for analysis of how Government cuts are hitting poorest areas hardest http://bit.ly/fm73iV

  34. robinlayfield

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  35. Balle Ramstedt

    Is anyone really surprised? RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I

  36. 13eastie

    @BenM LOL!

    ZaNuLabour commissioned a political report every few years (at tax-payers’ expense) and used it to justify throwing money at friendly councils and potential Labour voters for its own electoral gain.

    Afterwards it becomes clear (unsurprisingly) to others that these areas might offer the best prospects for efficiency savings.

    “Data” presented by LFF is not independent – it was commissioned by Labour; LFF has cherry-picked a couple of dozen data points from almost 400; IMD is simply a New Labour construct; the indices themselves are not designed to give a quantitative indication of relative deprivation and are only “useful” for creating a rank order; the trend-line is bound to show a linear relationship if you ask the software for a linear regression; the IMD is being used in such a way that as to imply that the scale from 0-50 encompasses the entire range of deprivation from Auschwitz to Utopia – it obviously does not (on a global scale of relative deprivation all localities in the UK would score almost equally and be close to the best off), but to recognise this would be to destroy the R-squared value on the charts; the scoring criteria and weightings are arbitrary; the “measurements” are from 2005; and, most importantly of all, LFF has ignored completely the rates of absolute spending per head.

    Excepting the foregoing I’m feeling totally skewered!

  37. Christine Quigley

    RT @fletchersimon: RT @leftfootfwd: Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/gjxG3I

  38. Ken Livingstone Team

    RT @leftfootfwd: @ValShawcross Please RT – Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dTBtmC

  39. Paul Maybin

    RT @leftfootfwd: @ValShawcross Please RT – Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dTBtmC

  40. Niki Rosenbaum

    RT @leftfootfwd: @ValShawcross Please RT – Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dTBtmC

  41. Peter Marshall

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  42. Jimmy Corkhill

    RT @leftfootfwd: @ValShawcross Please RT – Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dTBtmC

  43. Jim Buckley

    RT @leftfootfwd: @ValShawcross Please RT – Eric Pickles' cuts target Britain's poorest areas http://bit.ly/dTBtmC

  44. Mark Berry

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  45. Will Straw

    Will Straw

    13eastie – Madness:

    (1) The analysis yesterday was not commissioned by the Labour party, we did it off our own back.

    (2) We have not “cherry picked a couple of dozen data points” but looked at all London boroughs (Chart 1) and all Metropolitan areas (Chart 2). Given Britain’s bizarre local government structure it wouldnt make sense to lump all LAs in together.

    (3) The Index of Multiple Deprivation may have been created by a Labour government but what’s your point. It is calculated independently by academics at Oxford University.

    (4) We used data from 2007 (not 2005) because it’s the last year for which data is available. We’re due a new series in 2010 but the Government appears to be delaying its publication. I can’t guess why.

  46. Lewisham Green Party

    RT @DarrenJohnsonAM: Thanks @leftfootforward for analysis of how Government cuts are hitting poorest areas hardest http://bit.ly/fm73iV

  47. 13eastie

    Will,

    1) If you were actually to read my post, you would see that I stated that your “data” was commissioned by Labour, which it was. It certainly would not have been my intention to imply that your “econometric” analysis was anything but amateur…

    2) What you have done is exactly cherry picking: geographically; sociologically; statistically. It’s slap-dash spin. You have also misused the data in a manner that is warned against explicitly in the DCLG’s own document, “Using the English Indices of Deprivation 2007”. Your misappropriation of the data is disingenuous, as is the deliberate conflation of poverty with deprivation in your title.

    3) My point is that IMD is a party-political construct with a party-political function; it is not widely adopted; it is entirely unproven as an aid to policy, and it will remain so since (as qualified in the accompanying notes):

    >> “The ID 2007 scores and ranks cannot be used as absolute measures of deprivation or to identify absolute change over time.”.

    4) Again, were you actually to read the report, you would note that, on almost every other page, it makes pains to remind the reader that the data to which it owes its derivation is no more recent than 2005.

  48. Heather Cracknell

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  49. LAVA Collective

    RT @johannhari101: The Tory cuts announced today hit the poorest areas hardest: http://bit.ly/gjxG3I via excellent @leftfootforward

  50. Valueofnothing

    hmmm might be worth doing a logit regression with the independent variable being the size of the cut and the dependent variable being 1 if council is tory/liberal/tory liberal coalition and 0 otherwise.
    I bet that would give a good fit! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logit_regression

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