Guardian buries Labour resurgence

Today’s ICM poll for the Guardian puts the Labour party on level terms with the Conservatives for the first time since October 2007. But as noted by UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells, “the Guardian’s report concentrates upon the findings on the economy”. The topline number is buried on page seven of the paper and appears in the tenth paragraph of their online story.

In a blog titled “ICM show Labour and Tories neck and neck”, UK Polling Report observes:

“There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow that probably isn’t what David Cameron hoped for on his 100th day in power. Topline voting intention figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). This is the first time an ICM poll has shown Labour catching the Conservatives since October 2007 and the election that never was.

“Despite this rather striking finding, the Guardian’s report concentrates upon the findings on the economy, which is rather more positive for the government.”

In mentioning the finding towards the bottom of their online piece, the Guardian’s Larry Elliot and Tom Clark write:

“But despite some reasonably strong personal numbers for the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, when it comes to voting intentions there are clear signs that the first peacetime coalition in the era of universal suffrage is serving his Liberal Democrats less well than the Tories. Where the Conservatives are holding on to the 37% vote share which achieved in the election, a quarter of those who backed the Lib Dems have since switched sides, leaving the third party on just 18% – down one point on the month, and six on the election. Many of these deserters have drifted towards Labour, taking its standing to 37%, and allowing a leaderless party to run the Tories level for the first time in three years.”

The ICM / Guardian General Election prediction poll put the Tories on 37 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 26 per cent.

28 Responses to “Guardian buries Labour resurgence”

  1. LockPickerNet

    Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb via @leftfootfwd

  2. Andy Sutherland

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  3. Neil Wigglesworth

    RT @leftfootfwd Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  4. Richard Johnson

    RT @HouseofTwitsLab: RT @leftfootfwd Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  5. Roy Bailey

    RT @HouseofTwits: RT @leftfootfwd Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  6. Ian Tennant

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb > Typical Guardian

  7. Stephen

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  8. Rick Muir

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  9. Julian Bell

    RT @HouseofTwitsLab: RT @leftfootfwd Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  10. Quarrenne

    RT @leftfootfwd Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb < shocking and appalling spin from supporters of 'the new politics'

  11. Andrew Griffiths

    Keep trying to pursuade my Labour supporting Dad to stop buying the Guardian. //bit.ly/bIjcWb #ConDem

  12. M H

    Not wholly surprising since The Guardian supported one of the coalition parties at the GE. They must therefore be considered to be one of the many newspapers backing the coalition now it is in government.

  13. LC Prestes

    The Guardian is desperately trying to save face by slowly backing away from its position of outright support for the coalition, hoping that nobody will notice the paper’s imminent and inevitable volte face. The complete lack of analytical rigour from the paper is totally in keeping with its preoccupation with middle class lifestyle concerns. I remember buying the Guardian in 2002 the day after Lula had won the Brazilian presidential elections and anticipated a detailed piece on the geopolitical significance of his victory. There was a single paragraph of clichéd stereotypical drivel but I was delighted at the 2 page spread on Fat Boy Slim and Zoe whatshername. The rag is a disgrace

  14. Jamie Andrews

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb << interesting, I wonder why?!

  15. winston k moss

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  16. Billy Blofeld

    5 years is a long time. The polls will change.

    Also – if Labour selects a leader who picks up where Gordon Brown left off on the economy / debt and deficit lies – then Labour will sink again.

    50p says the Lib Dems are seriously considering merging with the Tories to form a party of central government with 55% of the vote – positioning Labour on 35% on the lunatic left wing fringe, who exist purely to battle it out with the hard right.

  17. LockPickerNet

    Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb via @leftfootfwd

  18. Philip Hunt

    Evidently Labour would be better off without a leader! (Ducks and runs)

  19. LC Prestes

    “5 yrs is a long time. The polls will change.” They certainly will Billy boy and they’ll not get any better for the condems. You should demand odds of at least 100/1 on your 50p! As the Lib dopes become ever more marginalised in the coalition, they’ll splinter, their vote will implode and as the country descends into chaos the libertarian Bullingdon boys will fight it out with the lunatic, racist, sexist, homophobic, authoritarian high tories on the backbenches. Get into your local Ladbrokes Billy boy, they’re waiting for mugs like you! Might even make you a coffee while you’re writing your bet out.

  20. Mark

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  21. Barnaby Lane

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/bIjcWb

  22. Chris Read

    I'm not sure we need a leader… //bit.ly/9fNmj1

  23. Charlotte MacKenzie

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/9fNmj1

  24. Ash

    “the libertarian Bullingdon boys will fight it out with the lunatic, racist, sexist, homophobic, authoritarian high tories on the backbenches”

    An all-too-plausible vision of the future, and a reminder of what uneasy alliances our main parties represent. You have the economically and socially liberal Right split between the LibDems and Tories – the Tory lot in an uneasy alliance with social conservatives, the LibDem lot in an uneasy alliance with social democrats, but looking all too comfortable in each others’ company in government. Then you have the social democratic centre-left split between Labour and the LibDems.

    Could we end up with a traditional Conservative Party breaking away from the Libertarian coalition crowd on one side (perhaps absorbing UKIP in the process), and the SDP tradition extracting itself from the LibDems on the other (perhaps being absorbed by Labour in the process) – effectively creating a permanent split on the Right mirroring the split we’ve had on the Left for the past thirty years? Or could the LibDems’ right wing just get absorbed into the Tory Party, leaving an even bigger right-wing party opposing Labour and a separate, centre-left LibDem rump? Or, if we get PR, do we end up with lots of little parties competing to be seen as the ‘true’ successors to the big parties we know and love? Fun times ahead one way or another, I suspect.

  25. BourgJoe

    Billy, your prediction that both the Conservatives and Lib-dems will merge taking their 55% of vote with them, thus isolating the Labour party, implies that the 55% would actually go along with it. Believe it or not, most Lib-dems are actually left/centre left leaning, as polls before the election have shown, and this explains their flight towards the Labour party in recent polls.

    The idea that the Labour party will become part of the lunatic left wing fringe is an amusing rightwing fantasy that assumes the Labour party is any more than moderately left wing in the first place!

  26. Mr. Sensible

    M H, the Guardian did back the Lib Dems, but today the editorial said that:

    The coalition that now governs Britain is not the one that this newspaper wanted.”
    //www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/aug/18/coalition-first-100-days-verdict

    I am sure the Guardian, like me, did not quite expect this.

    And when I read it I still find it reasonably centre-left. I’d soon take it over something like the Daily Mail any day!

    I didn’t vote Lib Dem (thank goodness!), but if I did I would probably be more than a bit annoyed.

    They have been found out, and are paying the price. If they have any principles, pull out of the coalition, and lets have another election.

    And, yes, I think Harman has done a good job as acting leader, and am surprised she isn’t standing.

  27. Mike

    The Liberal moment has come (and gone in 100 days)

    This Coalition will fall within two years but by Tory back benchers

    rump Lib Dem party will then try to kiss and make up to Miliband

  28. NogginTheNog

    RT @leftfootfwd: Guardian buries Labour resurgence //bit.ly/9fNmj1

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