CLP nominations reinforce MPs’ endorsements

CLP nominations reinforce MPs' endorsements. In nominating constituencies there was a 73% chance of supporting the same candidate as their MP.

Having the support of the MP was the most significant influence over Constituency Labour Party nominations in Labour-held seats, according to Fabian Society analysis for Left Foot Forward of the supporting nomination process which closed yesterday. In seats where there is no Labour MP, Ed Miliband is ahead while his brother, David, wins in the seats that Labour lost in 2010.

Where CLPs with a Labour MP chose to make a supporting nomination, there was a 73 per cent chance that they would support the same candidate as their MP. In only 45 cases (18.5 per cent of the 243 Labour MPs who had nominated a candidate) did a CLP nominate a somebody other than the candidate who their MP is publicly supporting.

120 CLPs doubled up and backed their MP’s choice. However, that is only 49.3 per cent of all CLPs where MPs had nominated, since 78 CLPs in this category (32 per cent) did not make any recommendation of their own.

The analysis suggests some caution in how strongly the CLP nomination race should be read as demonstrating how popular candidates are among the party membership. Nominations by party activists are one of the first important indicators of the views of party members, on whom data is scarce, but the nomination results also significantly reflect the existing pattern of Parliamentary support, and so blend existing information about the first (Parliamentary) section of the electoral college with new information about the second (member) section.

The MP influencer effect can be removed by looking at CLP nominations in non-Labour seats. Again, the Milibands were the front-runners in CLP nominations with no MP. This time, Ed Miliband (84) had a lead over David Miliband (71), having finished behind his brother in overall nominations, with Andy Burnham on 21, Diane Abbott on 12 and Ed Balls on 4 CLP nominations.

However, David Miliband won more of the constituencies where Labour lost the seat in 2010, leading Ed Miliband by 24 to 17 in these constituencies, with Burnham winning 6, Abbott 2 and Balls 1. Many of these seats will be key targets at the general election, subject to boundary changes.

The strong link between MP and CLP nominations could involve some causation in both directions: MPs could have been influenced by activists’ views. But this also reflects that many MPs have been influential as advocates and, in several cases, organisers in helping to “deliver” nominations for their preferred candidate. MPs’ public advocacy should also have some effect on how members vote, but this should prove a considerably weaker effect in an all-member postal ballot than in caucus meetings of local parties, particularly where CLPs restricted participation to members of the General Committee. Others held all-member meetings.

Ed Miliband (with 17) and David Miliband (with 16) won the most “away victories” where another candidate had the MP. Andy Burnham won eight “switcher” CLPs, including three giant-killings from each Miliband, while Diane Abbott and Ed Balls converted two each.

The most important example of a switcher CLP was David Miliband’s victory in the Bassetlaw primary, because it also converted John Mann MP’s own vote. None of the other CLP nominations carry any weight in the electoral college. The scale of participation made it unlikely that the MPs preference would prove decisive, as was most often the case elsewhere.

Note: Both Milibands were able to convert public support from an MP into a CLP nomination in around 60% of cases. Andy Burnham achieved a 40% conversion rate and Ed Balls 33%. With 3 CLP nominations linked to Parliamentary supporters, Diane Abbott was able to convert only around 15% of CLPs of MPs who have both nominated and support her. (The analysis reallocated formal nominees back to actual support where relevant, such as in the case of David Miliband supporters who nominated Diane Abbott. The majority of their CLPs then nominated David Miliband, their preferred candidate. Harriet Harman, Jon Cruddas, Rushanara Ali and Jack Straw have been counted as non-aligned MPs; while they nominated Diane Abbott, their CLP nominations have not been counted as switchers from Abbott. The classification of a small number of other MPs may be debatable: this would affect the figures marginally).

****

Nominations in opposition seats

Ed Miliband 84
(70 Cons, 14 LibDems; including 17 from CLPs in seats lost by Labour in 2010).

David Miliband 71
(63 Cons, 8 LibDems; including 24 from CLPs in seats lost by Labour in 2010).

Andy Burnham 21
(16 Cons, 3 LibDem, 1 SNP, Northern Ireland; including 6 from CLPs in seats lost by Labour in 2010).

Diane Abbott 12
(10 Cons, 2 LibDem; including 2 from CLPs in seats lost by Labour in 2010).

Ed Balls 4
(2 Cons, 1 LibDem, 1 SNP; including 1 CLP in seat lost by Labour in 2010).

***

Nominations in Labour-held seats

David Miliband
16 gains (6 from Ed Miliband; 5 from Diane Abbott*, 3 from Andy Burnham, 2 from Ed Balls).
9 from CLPs with unattached Labour MPs
56 CLPs with supporting MPs.
(* excludes David Miliband supporters who nominated DA).

Ed Miliband
16 gains (7 from David Miliband; 3 from Diane Abbott; 4 from Ed Balls; 2 from Andy Burnham)
9 from CLPs with unattached Labour MPs
37 CLPs with supporting MPs;

Andy Burnham
8 gains (3 from David Miliband; 3 from Ed Miliband; 2 from Ed Balls*; 0 from Diane Abbott)
(includes CLP of Kate Green, who nominated Burnham but is publicly supporting Balls).
2 from CLPs with unattached Labour MPs
13 CLPs with supporting MPs.

Ed Balls
2 gains (1 from David Miliband; 1 from Ed Miliband; 0 from Abbott or Burnham).
0 from CLPs with unattached Labour MPs
11 from CLPs with supporting MPs.

Diane Abbott
2 gains (1 from David Miliband; 1 from Ed Miliband; 0 from Balls or Burnham).
0 from CLPs with unattached Labour MPs
3 CLPs with supporting MPs

26 Responses to “CLP nominations reinforce MPs’ endorsements”

  1. House Of Twits

    RT @leftfootfwd CLP nominations reinforce MPs' endorsements – 73% go the same way //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  2. Claire Hazelgrove

    Useful breakdown of supporting noms RT @leftfootfwd: CLP nominations reinforce MPs' endorsements – 73% go the same way //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  3. Jessica Asato

    Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  4. LockPickerNet

    CLP nominations reinforce MPs' endorsements – 73% go the same way //bit.ly/a7bZpY via @leftfootfwd

  5. LockPickerNet

    CLP nominations reinforce MPs' endorsements – 73% go the same way //bit.ly/a7bZpY via @leftfootfwd

  6. carl johnson

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  7. carl johnson

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  8. Aaron Kumar

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  9. Aaron Kumar

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  10. Tristan Osborne

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  11. Tristan Osborne

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  12. Andy Sutherland

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  13. Wes Streeting

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  14. Joanne Milligan

    Interesting piece Sunder. Have all the data but haven’t yet done an analysis myself. Just one point following your comment ‘The most important example of a switcher CLP was David Miliband’s victory in the Bassetlaw primary, because it also converted John Mann MP’s own vote. None of the other CLP nominations carry any weight in the electoral college.’ – I’m led to believe that Chuka Umunna and Kate Hoey have said they will cast their MP vote for the candidate who won their CLPs supporting nomination. On this basis, David Miliband should get the 1st preference of both in the MP electoral college. Chuka had nominated Ed Miliband and Kate Hoey had nominated Diane Abbott.

    Turning out to be a very interesting contest and looking forward to the updated LFF modelling of what might happen to transfers.

  15. Aisha Gani

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations where Labour lost in 2010, @DMiliband leads @Ed_Miliband 24-17: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  16. Rhiannon Lowton

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  17. Samuel Tarry

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  18. Theo Blackwell

    RT @SamTarry: RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  19. Clause 4 Moment

    RT @Jessica_Asato: Interesting analysis on @leftfootfwd showing that @DMiliband won more CLP noms in seats which just lost an MP //bit.ly/cAGVNl

  20. Milibairn

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  21. John77

    Sunder – has it never occurred to you that the MP might reflect the views of the CLP that selected him/her and helped him/her to get elected? It should be no surprise that CLPs agree with MPs. Correlation is not causation. (Can’t be sure if an all-women short-list was imposed but one would expect a fair amount of agreement on policy). As to CLP views in seats lost in 2010 – it is very plausible that the more left-wing a candidate was, the more likely he was to lose votes to Libdems and the seat to a Tory (despite the LibDems in parliament being generally to the left of New Labour).
    Are not Manchester City supporters very likely to support Lancashire County Cricket Club?
    The following example is NOT politically incorrect – it is chosen solely for its simplicity*. The proportion of red-haired people among immigrants from southern Europe (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc) is far far lower than that of those born in the UK. The proportion of red-haired people among “blacks” – or BME or whatever your preferred terminology may be – is far lower than among the rest of the population. It does NOT follow that this is because they are immigrants from southern Europe.

    *The classic example is that the level of drunkenness in the early years of last century was very highly correlated with the salaries of Baptist Minsters in the industrial cities of Northern England, but you might not understand the joke.

  22. Paul Duxbury

    RT @leftfootfwd: In CLP nominations with no Labour MP, @Ed_Miliband leads @DMiliband 84-71: //bit.ly/a7bZpY

  23. Sunder Katwala

    Joanne,

    That isn’t the case re Chuka U in Streatham. Checked out the claim, and have blogged it here. Another reader may have info on Kate Hoey and Vauxhall.
    //www.nextleft.org/2010/07/chukas-burkean-stance.html

    John77 – yes, it has occurred to me. The piece says “The strong link between MP and CLP nominations could involve some causation in both directions”. But I think the link is a bit stronger than your account implies, and there are certainly good examples of MPs getting the result they want.

  24. Richard Angell

    @DMiliband wins most nominations in CLPs we have just lost. @NextLeft / @leftfootfwd (//bit.ly/bJwHiQ) He's the man to win them back!

  25. Liza Harding

    RT @RichardAngell: @DMiliband wins most nominations in CLPs we have just lost. @NextLeft / @leftfootfwd (//bit.ly/bJwHiQ) He's the man to win them back!

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