David Cameron is polling nowhere near as good as Tony Blair at the same stage of the electoral cycle.
Benjamin Wegg-Prosser, Tony Blair’s former Director of Strategic Communications, has written on his blog that David Cameron is still some way behind Blair in 1996. Wegg-Prosser, Director of Strategy at one of Russia’s largest online media companies, has written on his blog:
“Taking Mori data Labour had not slipped below 48 percentage points from the moment that Blair became leader and had peaked at 61 per cent. Cameron today is in nothing like as strong a position, his ratings have touched 52 per cent but have also gone a low as 28 per cent. Crucially, Labour has shown it can eat into the Tories’ lead, as it did this week, during the peak financial crisis last year and during Brown’s early months in office.
“I suspect that the decision [of The Sun] to fall in behind Cameron has more to do with: the Sun’s declining circulation (they love a drop of good PR in East London); the fact that News International’s new chief executive wants to flex her political muscles; and pressure from the Tories who want to bring the paper’s still considerable campaigning weight behind their efforts as we enter the home straight of the electoral cycle.”
And Cameron has been dealt a further blow by YouGov’s latest tracker poll which saw the Tory lead over Labour cut in half from 16 points to seven – the Tories on 37 per cent (down three) and Labour on 30 per cent (up six).
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12 Responses to “Former Blair adviser says Cameron not in “strong position””
Benjamin W-P
Simon – if you read my post you will see that I make reference to Mori data being far from perfect, but an ok guide to comparing like with like. Of course all of the polling orgs have updated their methodology, but regardless of that, the sheer size and scale of Blair’s lead pre 1997 is way ahead of the Tories today. And, crucially, that support is brittle.
Benjamin W-P
Silent Hunter – and why exactly should people pay attention to you, given that you have decided to conceal your identity?
Swagata
Will: some sensible counter arguments there. I still think Labour should have taken the steps to change leader. Yes there’s a recession on but a conference is always a self-indulgent moment.
Benjamin W-P: perhaps Silent Hunter is at work and doesn’t want their name on the internet when they’re supposed to be on duty, or perhaps they want to express political views at odds with their employer. Internet anonymity is not always something to sneer at, it can be liberating. But you can sneer at Silent Hunter’s agressive ad hominem tone.
Simon
I would agree that Blair was in a stronger position pre 97 than Dave is now. However, I think that has more to do with the general anti politician mood which has grown in strenth in recent years. But if you insist on these comparisions why not compare Brown’s ratings with Major’s too?
Shamik Das
Simon, if it’s good enough for Andrew Cooper of Populus to directly conpare Cameron now to Tony in 1994-97, it’s good enough for me.
Swagata, I think changing leader now would be disastrous, both for the party and the country.